First pick in '08 NFL Draft to be costly

The Miami Dolphins may have a problem trading the #1 pick in this year's draft. Not only are there no clear-cut "franchise" players at the top of the draft, but the #1 pick is expected to command a contract in excess of $60 million, with over half of that guaranteed.

In the 2006 NFL Draft, #1 pick Mario Williams received a $54M contract, with $26.5M guaranteed. One year later, JaMarcus Russell held out until he signed a contract worth $61M with $32M guaranteed. Thats an increase of 13% in total value and 21% in guaranteed pay. (click here for full 2006 and 2007 First round contract details)

If that trend continues (as it probably will considering the wealth of cap room most teams will again have this year) the #1 pick will likely sign a contract worth $69M total with $39M guaranteed. If the first pick happens to be at a "premium" position, like RB or QB, it wouldn't be unthinkable for those numbers to rise to over $70M total with over $40M guaranteed.

That is a hefty price to pay for an unproved player. Unless the owners and player's union agrees to fix this in the next round of collective bargaining agreements, any team that doesn't go along with the rise in prices will likely have to deal with a long holdout, like Oakland had with Russell last year.

In the past, teams looking to trade up into the first spot had to pay a king's ransom. With these large contracts for high picks making more teams reluctant to trade up, I expect the trade value of the #1 pick to start to decline. In fact, I would not be surprised if the Dolphins trade away the pick for relative peanuts if they can get the guy they want all along at a cheaper contract.