The Miami Dolphins may have a problem trading the #1 pick in this year's draft. Not only are there no clear-cut "franchise" players at the top of the draft, but the #1 pick is expected to command a contract in excess of $60 million, with over half of that guaranteed.
In the 2006 NFL Draft, #1 pick Mario Williams received a $54M contract, with $26.5M guaranteed. One year later, JaMarcus Russell held out until he signed a contract worth $61M with $32M guaranteed. Thats an increase of 13% in total value and 21% in guaranteed pay. (click here for full 2006 and 2007 First round contract details)
If that trend continues (as it probably will considering the wealth of cap room most teams will again have this year) the #1 pick will likely sign a contract worth $69M total with $39M guaranteed. If the first pick happens to be at a "premium" position, like RB or QB, it wouldn't be unthinkable for those numbers to rise to over $70M total with over $40M guaranteed.
That is a hefty price to pay for an unproved player. Unless the owners and player's union agrees to fix this in the next round of collective bargaining agreements, any team that doesn't go along with the rise in prices will likely have to deal with a long holdout, like Oakland had with Russell last year.
In the past, teams looking to trade up into the first spot had to pay a king's ransom. With these large contracts for high picks making more teams reluctant to trade up, I expect the trade value of the #1 pick to start to decline. In fact, I would not be surprised if the Dolphins trade away the pick for relative peanuts if they can get the guy they want all along at a cheaper contract.
First pick in '08 NFL Draft to be costly
Monday, February 25, 2008 at 6:33 PM Posted by Mike Register
2006 and 2007 NFL First Round Contract Details
Sunday, February 24, 2008 at 7:56 PM Posted by Mike Register
I've pieced together the contract details of the first round picks in the 2006 and 2007 NFL Drafts.
Click Here to download the rookie contract details in Excel '07
Click Here to download in Word
The Max column represents the Maximum value of the contract if incentives are reached. The Guar. column is the amount of Guaranteed money in the contract. All values are in millions of dollars.
| 2006 First Round Contract Details | ||||
| Slot | Player | Yrs | Max | Guar. |
| 1 | Mario Williams | 6 | $54.00 | $26.50 |
| 2 | Reggie Bush | 6 | $52.50 | $26.30 |
| 3 | Vince Young | 6 | $58.00 | $25.75 |
| 4 | D'Brickashaw Ferguson | 6 | $37.50 | $17.90 |
| 5 | AJ Hawk | 6 | $37.50 | $16.00 |
| 6 | Vernon Davis | 5 | $23.00 | $15.20 |
| 7 | Michael Huff | 6 | $43.00 | $15.00 |
| 8 | Donte Whitner | 5 | $29.00 | $13.50 |
| 9 | Ernie Sims | 5 | $15.74 | $12.10 |
| 10 | Matt Leinart | 6 | $50.80 | $14.00 |
| 11 | Jay Cutler | 6 | $47.86 | $11.00 |
| 12 | Haloti Ngata | 5 | $11.90 | $9.28 |
| 13 | Kamerion Wimbley | 6 | $23.70 | $9.25 |
| 14 | Brodrick Bunkley | 6 | $17.50 | $7.46 |
| 15 | Tye Hill | 5 | $10.20 | $7.70 |
| 16 | Jason Allen | 6 | $24.00 | $7.80 |
| 17 | Chad Greenway | 5 | $10.75 | $6.15 |
| 18 | Bobby Carpenter | 5 | $12.00 | $7.50 |
| 19 | Antonio Cromartie | 5 | $12.50 | $7.35 |
| 20 | Tamba Hali | 5 | ? | ? |
| 21 | Laurence Maroney | 5 | $8.74 | $6.13 |
| 22 | Manny Lawson | 5 | $13.90 | $4.90 |
| 23 | Davin Joseph | 5 | $10.00 | $4.14 |
| 24 | Johnathan Joseph | 5 | $8.20 | $5.60 |
| 25 | Santonio Holmes | 5 | $8.11 | $5.42 |
| 26 | John McCargo | 5 | $8.60 | $5.20 |
| 27 | Deangelo Williams | 5 | $14.50 | $5.00 |
| 28 | Marcedes Lewis | 5 | $7.50 | $4.80 |
| 29 | Nick Mangold | 5 | $7.40 | $4.80 |
| 30 | Joseph Addai | 5 | $11.65 | $4.76 |
| 31 | Kelly Jennings | 5 | $9.70 | $5.00 |
| 32 | Mathias Kiwanuka | 5 | $10.00 | $5.00 |
| AVERAGE | 5.3 | $22.25 | $10.21 | |
| 2007 First Round Contract Details | ||||||
| Slot | Player | Yrs | Max | Change | Guar. | Change |
| 1 | JaMarcus Russell | 6 | $61.00 | 13% | $32.00 | 21% |
| 2 | Calvin Johnson | 6 | $64.50 | 23% | $27.20 | 3% |
| 3 | Joe Thomas | 6 | $42.50 | -27% | $23.00 | -11% |
| 4 | Gaines Adams | 6 | $46.00 | 23% | $18.60 | 4% |
| 5 | Levi Brown | 6 | $62.00 | 65% | $18.10 | 13% |
| 6 | LaRon Landry | 5 | $41.50 | 80% | $17.50 | 15% |
| 7 | Adrian Peterson | 5 | $40.50 | -6% | $17.00 | 13% |
| 8 | Jamaal Anderson | 5 | $31.00 | 7% | $15.40 | 14% |
| 9 | Ted Ginn | 5 | $21.80 | 39% | $14.00 | 16% |
| 10 | Amobi Okoye | 6 | $17.70 | -65% | $12.80 | -9% |
| 11 | Patrick Willis | 5 | $16.70 | -65% | $12.00 | 9% |
| 12 | Marshawn Lynch | 5 | $18.94 | 59% | $10.30 | 11% |
| 13 | Adam Carriker | 5 | $14.50 | -39% | $9.40 | 2% |
| 14 | Darrelle Revis | 6 | $36.00 | 106% | $11.00 | 47% |
| 15 | Lawrence Timmons | 5 | $12.00 | 18% | $8.05 | 5% |
| 16 | Justin Harrell | 6 | $15.00 | -38% | $8.00 | 3% |
| 17 | Jarvis Moss | 5 | $15.00 | 40% | $8.00 | 30% |
| 18 | Leon Hall | 5 | $13.10 | 9% | $8.20 | 9% |
| 19 | Michael Griffin | 5 | $13.30 | 6% | $7.50 | 2% |
| 20 | Aaron Ross | 5 | $13.50 | ? | $8.00 | ? |
| 21 | Reggie Nelson | 5 | $13.10 | 50% | $7.10 | 16% |
| 22 | Brady Quinn | 5 | $30.00 | 116% | $7.75 | 58% |
| 23 | Dwayne Bowe | 5 | $11.80 | 18% | $6.50 | 57% |
| 24 | Brandon Merriweather | 5 | $11.50 | 40% | $6.00 | 7% |
| 25 | Jon Beason | 5 | $12.50 | 54% | $6.30 | 16% |
| 26 | Anthony Spencer | 5 | $9.00 | 5% | $6.00 | 15% |
| 27 | Robert Meachem | 5 | $11.30 | -22% | $5.70 | 14% |
| 28 | Joe Staley | 5 | $10.90 | 45% | $5.60 | 17% |
| 29 | Ben Grubbs | 5 | $10.60 | 43% | $5.50 | 15% |
| 30 | Craig Davis | 5 | $11.03 | -5% | $5.40 | 13% |
| 31 | Greg Olsen | 5 | $10.69 | 10% | $4.90 | -2% |
| 32 | Anthony Gonzalez | 5 | $10.30 | 3% | $5.40 | 8% |
| AVERAGE | 5 | $23.41 | 5% | $11.19 | 10% | |
2007 NFL First Round Rookie Contract Details (UPDATED)
Thursday, August 16, 2007 at 5:00 PM Posted by Mike Register
I have since updated this information. Click here to access all the rookie contract details from the 2006 and 2007 NFL Draft!
Almost all 2007 NFL draft picks have been signed (Oakland and JaMarcus Russell have yet to reach a deal). A few weeks ago I published the contract details of the first round picks in the '07 Draft. It has been my post popular post to date. With all but Russell signed, I've updated the contract details below.
I'd like to point out a few things to clarify the numbers below. Most of the 6 year contracts have easily voidable years that make them essentially 4-5 year deals. The Max Value includes incentives that are not likely to be earned. Brady Quinn's deal, with a max value of $30 million seems great, but it is extremely doubtful he will see more than $10 million on that contract.
"Max" and "Guaranteed" values are in millions of dollars.
| Player | Yrs | Max | Guar. | |
| 1 | JaMarcus Russell | |||
| 2 | Calvin Johnson | 6 | $64.50 | $27.20 |
| 3 | Joe Thomas | 6 | $42.50 | $23.00 |
| 4 | Gaines Adams | 6 | $46.00 | $18.60 |
| 5 | Levi Brown | 6 | $62.00 | $18.10 |
| 6 | LaRon Landry | 5 | $41.50 | $17.50 |
| 7 | Adrian Peterson | 5 | $40.50 | $17.00 |
| 8 | Jamaal Anderson | 5 | $31.00 | $15.40 |
| 9 | Ted Ginn | 5 | $21.80 | $14.00 |
| 10 | Amobi Okoye | 6 | $17.70 | $12.80 |
| 11 | Patrick Willis | 5 | $16.70 | $12.00 |
| 12 | Marshawn Lynch | 5 | $18.94 | $10.30 |
| 13 | Adam Carriker | 5 | $14.50 | $9.40 |
| 14 | Darrelle Revis | 6 | $36.00 | $11.00 |
| 15 | Lawrence Timmons | 5 | $12.00 | $8.05 |
| 16 | Justin Harrell | 6 | $15.00 | $8.00 |
| 17 | Jarvis Moss | 5 | $15.00 | $8.00 |
| 18 | Leon Hall | 5 | $13.10 | $8.20 |
| 19 | Michael Griffin | 5 | $13.30 | $7.50 |
| 20 | Aaron Ross | 5 | $13.50 | $8.00 |
| 21 | Reggie Nelson | 5 | $13.10 | $7.10 |
| 22 | Brady Quinn | 5 | $30.00 | $7.75 |
| 23 | Dwayne Bowe | 5 | $11.80 | $6.50 |
| 24 | Brandon Merriweather | 5 | $11.50 | $6.00 |
| 25 | Jon Beason | 5 | $12.50 | $6.30 |
| 26 | Anthony Spencer | 5 | $9.00 | $6.00 |
| 27 | Robert Meachem | 5 | $11.30 | $5.70 |
| 28 | Joe Staley | 5 | $10.90 | $5.60 |
| 29 | Ben Grubbs | 5 | $10.60 | $5.50 |
| 30 | Craig Davis | 5 | $11.03 | $5.40 |
| 31 | Greg Olsen | 5 | $10.69 | $4.90 |
| 32 | Anthony Gonzalez | 5 | $10.30 | $5.40 |
I have since updated this information. Click here to access all the rookie contract details from the 2006 and 2007 NFL Draft!
