2007 Rookie QB Stats

I've compiled the following statistics for the top five rookie quarterbacks of 2007. As the season goes on, I will update the stats as necessary.

Kevin Kolb				Att	Com	Pct	Yds	Yds/Att	TD	INT
2003	NCAA	Houston		360	220	61.1%	3131	8.70	25	6
2004	NCAA	Houston		353	198	56.1%	2766	7.84	11	6
2005	NCAA	Houston		420	254	60.5%	3258	7.76	19	15
2006	NCAA	Houston		432	292	67.6%	3809	8.82	30	4
2007	NFL Exhibition	Philadelphia		106	70	66.0%	617	5.82	2	0
Brady Quinn				Att	Com	Pct	Yds	Yds/Att	TD	INT
2003	NCAA	Notre Dame		332	157	47.3%	1831	5.52	9	15
2004	NCAA	Notre Dame		353	191	54.1%	2586	7.33	17	10
2005	NCAA	Notre Dame		450	292	64.9%	3919	8.71	32	7
2006	NCAA	Notre Dame		467	289	61.9%	3426	7.34	37	7
2007	NFL Exhibition	Cleveland		45	29	64.4%	300	6.67	3	1
John Beck				Att	Com	Pct	Yds	Yds/Att	TD	INT
2003	NCAA	BYU		145	73	50.3%	864	5.96	5	5
2004	NCAA	BYU		343	192	56.0%	2563	7.47	15	8
2005	NCAA	BYU		513	331	64.5%	3709	7.23	27	13
2006	NCAA	BYU		417	289	69.3%	3885	9.32	32	8
2007	NFL Exhibition	Miami		48	27	56.3%	300	6.25	2	2
JaMarcus Russell				Att	Com	Pct	Yds	Yds/Att	TD	INT
2004	NCAA	LSU		144	73	50.7%	1053	7.31	9	4
2005	NCAA	LSU		311	188	60.5%	2443	7.86	15	9
2006	NCAA	LSU		342	232	67.8%	3129	9.15	28	8
2007	NFL Exhibition	Oakland		-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Drew Stanton				Att	Com	Pct	Yds	Yds/Att	TD	INT
2003	NCAA	Michigan St		3	2	66.7%	39	13.00	0	0
2004	NCAA	Michigan St		220	141	64.1%	1601	7.28	8	6
2005	NCAA	Michigan St		354	236	66.7%	3077	8.69	22	12
2006	NCAA	Michigan St		269	164	61.0%	1807	6.72	12	10
2007	NFL Exhibition	Detroit		-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Brady Quinn to start in Cleveland?

According to Profootballtalk.com, Ken Dorsey is back in Cleveland and may be re-signed soon. PFT reports that Dorsey and rookie Brady Quinn have forged a friendship. Dorsey may be brought in to mentor Quinn and get him ready to start soon.

If you watched the Browns-Steelers game this weekend, you saw how awful things are for the Browns. Neither QB, Charlie "Phillip J." Frye nor Derek "Run Forrest" Anderson, played all that well. Anderson was substantially better than Frye, but still only completed 46.4% of his passes.

So, all this speculation leads one to believe that the Browns have hit the panic button and are trying to get the "rookie phenom" ready to play.

Lets get one thing straight: it doesn't matter who the QB is, the Browns are bad. They turned the ball over five times. They allowed six sacks. They never even tried to establish the run (16 carries and a 2.9 yard per rush average). They routinely dropped passes and missed tackles.

How much of a difference can the Golden Boy make? Certainly anyone thinking that Quinn's presence means the offensive line will block better and the defense will make tackles is delusional or mistaken, or both.

Of course, Quinn can't be any worse than Phillip J. or Forrest Gump, can he?

Brady Quinn not the only rookie QB lighting it up

A lot of attention has been given to the statistics put up my Cleveland Browns rookie QB Brady Quinn this preseason. While Quinn's stats are impressive, he is not the only rookie QB making a mark this preseason.

Philadelphia's Kevin Kolb looked very impressive against the Steelers on Sunday Night Football. Kolb was 27 of 39 with 264 yards and 1 TD. He also had a touchdown pass dropped on the Eagle's last play of the game. He showed off his arm strength and accuracy on a great out route late in the 4th quarter. It was questionable whether WR Jermaine Jamison got his left foot in bounds, even though the catch stood upon further review. Whether he did or not is irrelevant, as Kolb made a big time throw to put the receiver in a position to make the play.

Miami's John Beck has shown some moxie in his three preseason games. Beck led two come from behind victories in the first two games, and almost did so again against the Tampa Bay Bucs on Saturday night. Beck has looked very comfortable in the pocket, has shown good mobility, and consistently delivers the ball on time and on a dime.

Buffalo QB Trent Edwards has flown a little under the radar this preseason. Edwards has completed over 75% of his attempts in three games and has yet to throw an interception. The Bills have to be satisfied with his progress thus far.

Stats of rookie QBs through the first three preseason games (min:15 att):

	Player	Team	Att	Com	Pct	Yards	TD	Int	Yds/Att
	Trent Edwards	Buffalo	37	28	75.7%	250	1	0	6.76
	Tyler Palko	New Orleans	37	21	56.8%	244	1	3	6.59
	John Beck	Miami	33	19	57.6%	237	2	0	7.18
	Brady Quinn	Cleveland	31	20	64.5%	236	3	0	7.61
	Josh Betts	Indianapolis	34	21	61.8%	202	2	3	5.94
	Kevin Kolb	Philadelphia	72	49	68.1%	414	1	0	5.75
	Matt Gutierrez	New England	22	12	54.5%	136	0	0	6.18
	Troy Smith	Baltimore	19	7	36.8%	94	0	0	4.95
	Jeff Rowe	Cincinnati	16	11	68.8%	103	1	0	6.44

Cleveland fans desperate for Brady Quinn

Tom Brady. Peyton Manning. Brady Quinn.

One of these things is not like the other. One of these things does not belong.

Brady Quinn lit up Detroit's third string defense in last week's exhibition game. Folks in Cleveland have jumped on the Quinn bandwagon.

How can an entire town get behind someone as unlikeable as Brady Quinn? The city of Cleveland is so starved for a winner that they are willing to overlook Quinn's arrogance, overrated ability, and lengthy contract holdout. The fans in Cleveland are already calling for Quinn as the starter.

I know Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson have been awful behind the center, but does anyone really think starting a rookie who missed training camp will make the Browns a better team?

Five of Cleveland's first six games (Pittsburgh, Oakland, Baltimore, New England, and Miami) are against teams with great defenses. Starting Quinn to open the season is about as smart as playing "hide the salami" with Tom Cruise, Lance Bass, and Richard Simmons.

Not even Dan Marino, the only true passing QB (take that VY) to make the Pro Bowl as a rookie, would have held up against those teams. For the record, Marino didn't even start the first five games of his rookie season.

While Frye and Anderson aren't long-term options at QB, head coach Romeo Crennel knows his job is on the line and he needs to start the player who gives him the best chance to win now. Quinn is not that guy, at least until week 7.

Monday Morning Football Weekend Wrap Up (8/20/07)

Booze+Poker=Linguistic Artistry

Nothing says "Guys' Night" like booze and poker. During this weekend's drunken debauchery, I coined two new names for poker hands. Feel free to use them on your next poker night. Just remember that you heard them here at God Loves The Gators.

K-9: The Michael Vick
Doesn't really need any explanation does it? Aesthetically, this name works best if one card is a club or spade and the other a heart or diamond because the Falcons colors are red and black. This hand name should only be used by people who have already reserved their seat on the short bus to hell.

Q-10: The Brady Quinn
Q for Quinn or Q for Queen. 10 happens to be the Golden Boy's number. Just like Brady Quinn, this hand looks like a good starting hand to an uneducated poker player. A knowledgeable poker player knows that the Q-10, like Quinn, is only mediocre.


Ginn's last great return happened in January?

Last Thursday night's exhibition game was my first chance to check out my Miami Dolphins. I was not impressed with Ted Ginn's return ability. Apparently neither was new coach Cam Cameron. Cameron has been getting starting RB Ronnie Brown some reps at kick returner so Ginn can concentrate on returning punts. Ginn needs to watch some tape of the Bear's Devin Hester. Hester runs up the field, not sideline to sideline like Ginn. If he thinks he can consistently outrun defenders on returns, than the Dolphins wasted the #7 pick of the draft.

All hail the Mighty Quinn!

Poor, poor Cleveland Browns fans. They have been so starved for success that they were compelled to cheer when the Golden Boy saw his first NFL action in the 4th quarter of Saturday's preseason game against the Lions. And boy, the Mighty Quinn didn't disappoint! He went 13-20 for 155 yards and 2 TDs. Impressive! How he managed that against a Detroit defensive lineup consisting of All-Stars like DBs Ramzee Robinson and Tony Beckham, I do not know. The league should go ahead and clear out a space in Canton next to Joe Montana's bust for the Mighty Quinn.

Camels need lovin' too

I must admit, I did not pay much attention to the exhibition games going on this past weekend. But that doesn't mean I wasn't keeping my ear to ground looking for hard hitting news to report to throbbing mass of readers.

So here it is: Australian Women Humped To Death By Camel. I don't mean to make light of someone's death, but come on! That is flat out funny.

Somewhere Steve DeBerg is warming up his arm

The Patriots resigned 43 year old QB Vinny Testaverde. I was 8 years old when my hometown team, the Tampa Bay Bucs, drafted Testaverde in 1987. The Bucs were awful back then, and no one in Tampa thought he'd still be playing in the NFL 20 years later. New England coach Bill Belichick is rumored to be working on getting Testaverde in a few games to attempt some dropkicks this year.

Truck Stop John

John Madden doesn't know how much a gallon of gas cost. Madden and Al Michaels just finished up a thrilling conversation during the exciting Sunday Night exhibition game between the Ravens and Giants. Madden also likes truck stops. Read into that whatever you want.

2007 NFL First Round Rookie Contract Details (UPDATED)

I have since updated this information. Click here to access all the rookie contract details from the 2006 and 2007 NFL Draft!

Almost all 2007 NFL draft picks have been signed (Oakland and JaMarcus Russell have yet to reach a deal). A few weeks ago I published the contract details of the first round picks in the '07 Draft. It has been my post popular post to date. With all but Russell signed, I've updated the contract details below.

I'd like to point out a few things to clarify the numbers below. Most of the 6 year contracts have easily voidable years that make them essentially 4-5 year deals. The Max Value includes incentives that are not likely to be earned. Brady Quinn's deal, with a max value of $30 million seems great, but it is extremely doubtful he will see more than $10 million on that contract.

"Max" and "Guaranteed" values are in millions of dollars.

	Player	Yrs	Max	Guar.
1	JaMarcus Russell
2	Calvin Johnson	6	$64.50	$27.20
3	Joe Thomas	6	$42.50	$23.00
4	Gaines Adams	6	$46.00	$18.60
5	Levi Brown	6	$62.00	$18.10
6	LaRon Landry	5	$41.50	$17.50
7	Adrian Peterson	5	$40.50	$17.00
8	Jamaal Anderson	5	$31.00	$15.40
9	Ted Ginn	5	$21.80	$14.00
10	Amobi Okoye	6	$17.70	$12.80
11	Patrick Willis	5	$16.70	$12.00
12	Marshawn Lynch	5	$18.94	$10.30
13	Adam Carriker	5	$14.50	$9.40
14	Darrelle Revis	6	$36.00	$11.00
15	Lawrence Timmons	5	$12.00	$8.05
16	Justin Harrell	6	$15.00	$8.00
17	Jarvis Moss	5	$15.00	$8.00
18	Leon Hall	5	$13.10	$8.20
19	Michael Griffin	5	$13.30	$7.50
20	Aaron Ross	5	$13.50	$8.00
21	Reggie Nelson	5	$13.10	$7.10
22	Brady Quinn	5	$30.00	$7.75
23	Dwayne Bowe	5	$11.80	$6.50
24	Brandon Merriweather	5	$11.50	$6.00
25	Jon Beason	5	$12.50	$6.30
26	Anthony Spencer	5	$9.00	$6.00
27	Robert Meachem	5	$11.30	$5.70
28	Joe Staley	5	$10.90	$5.60
29	Ben Grubbs	5	$10.60	$5.50
30	Craig Davis	5	$11.03	$5.40
31	Greg Olsen	5	$10.69	$4.90
32	Anthony Gonzalez	5	$10.30	$5.40

I have since updated this information. Click here to access all the rookie contract details from the 2006 and 2007 NFL Draft!

Kevin Kolb, John Beck Most Likely To Be Top NFL Quarterbacks

Every year around April we hear stories of how great this QB prospect is going to be. During draft season everyone gets caught up in the physical abilities of each prospect, but fail to look at the big picture.

Using more than just physical ability, I will handicap who I feel in the 2007 NFL Draft has the best shot at long-term QB success in the NFL.

Criteria

Research done by the Football Outsiders suggest that there are two college stats that many successful pro QBs share: Starts and Completion Percentage. QBs who have started at least 40 games and have a career completion percentage of at least 60% tend to have more success in the NFL. These two stats will be the first criteria used to judge this year's rookie passers.

I will also use physical ability to rank the players. However, just being drafted means that you have enough physical ability to play pro football. I will look at size, mobility, arm strength, and accuracy. I will use the opinions of several draft guides in my analysis.

The last criteria is the most subjective. I call it the "X-factors." It includes my opinion of a QB's intangibles, like leadership, work ethic, etc. It also includes a fair assessment of the environment the player is in. Was he drafted to a talented team with good coaching? Will he be forced to play right away? These are all just as important, if not more so, than raw physical talent.

While my rankings may seem surprising, they represent a complete assessment of what it takes to be a pro QB.

Rankings

1. Kevin Kolb, Philadelphia
Grade: A+
Kolb grades very well in all the criteria I used. He started 50 games at Houston and completed 61.6% of his passes. He has all the physical tools necessary to be a successful QB. He's also in the perfect situation in Philadelphia. He gets to learn from an offensive mastermind in an offense that suits his skills perfectly. Their is also no pressure to start right away, with Donovan McNabb expected to return to form this season.

2. John Beck, Miami
Grade: B
Beck was a very efficient passer (62.4% completion rate) in 38 starts for BYU. While many have questioned his arm strength, he obviously put those concerns to rest, as evidenced by his meteoric rise up draft boards and eventual selection by the Dolphins near the top of the 2nd round. Beck gets to learn under Cam Cameron and will be Trent Green's understudy for at least one season before he is expected to start. The Dolphins still have a great defense and are rebuilding the offense. When Beck is ready to play, the Dolphins could be ready for a playoff push.

3. JaMarcus Russell, Oakland
Grade: C-
Russell has the best physical tools of any QB in this draft, but he is going to a very bad offense in Oakland. History has shown that high first round picks thrown to the wolves on bad teams usually don't pan out. Russell's holdout could be a good thing, it would make the Raiders more inclined to keep him on the bench so he can learn.

4. Brady Quinn, Cleveland
Grade: C-
Quinn is also in a bad spot in Cleveland. Combined with the fact that he has average arm strength and accuracy, he will be hard-pressed to develop into a top NFL QB. His clueless holdout and smug attitude won't endear him to fans or his teammates.

5. Jordan Palmer, Washington
Grade: C-
The younger Palmer has just as good physical tools as his older brother, but he never seemed to put it all together in college, despite starting 42 games. Washington is not exactly an offensive paradise, but he can sit for three or four years and maybe become something special.

6. Drew Stanton, Detroit
Grade: C-
Stanton initially had a grade higher than JaMarcus Russell, but he has since been put on IR for a knee injury. Missing his whole rookie season will definitely set him back. And who knows how his mobility and mechanics will be affected by the knee injury. Otherwise, Stanton is actually in a great spot in Detroit. They have plenty of offensive talent, a genius offensive mind in Mike Martz, and an older veteran QB in Jon Kitna to learn from.

7. Troy Smith, Baltimore
Grade: D
Smith's biggest knock is his size. He has a good arm and showed leadership ability at Ohio State. He'll get a chance to learn behind Steve McNair in Baltimore and could develop into a very good backup.

8. Trent Edwards, Buffalo
Grade: D
Wasn't impressive at Stanford, even though he possesses fine physical abilities. Buffalo is not a team known for developing QBs.

The Rest: Jeff Rowe, Cincinnati; Tyler Thigpen, Minnesota; Isaiah Stanback, Dallas
Grade: F
None of these guys have any one part of their game that jumps out. Best chance for success for any of them at this point seems as a back up or in another league.

Contract Details of 2007 First Round Picks

I have since updated this information. Click here to access all the rookie contract details from the 2006 and 2007 NFL Draft!

I have cobbled together a table with contract details of the 2007 NFL 1st Round draft picks. The information was taken from various news reports and may not be 100% accurate. As of July 31, JaMarcus Russell, Calvin Johnson, Levi Brown, Darrelle Revis, Brady Quinn, Dwayne Bowe, and John Beason have yet to sign. I could not find the maximum value of Ted Ginn and Michael Griffin's contracts.

Dwayne Bowe is waiting for Brady Quinn to sign before he signs. If you notice, the MAX and Guaranteed amounts of each contract declines at a steady rate as you fall down the first round. Quinn and his agent feel he deserves to be paid like a high pick because that is what they gave up (assuming its business as usual in Cleveland)in next year's draft to get back into the first round this year and draft him. Bowe and his agent want to make sure he is paid in between Quinn and Brandon Merriweather, who was right behind Bowe. If Quinn signed for fair value of the #22 spot, than Bowe could expect a MAX value of $11.5M-13M with guarantees of $6M-7M. If Quinn can con the Browns into paying him the average of the #4 spot (right around where the Browns would have most likely picked next year) and the #22 pick he actually was, than Bowe's contract range increases to $11.5M-18M Max value with $6M-10M gauranteed.

Dwayne Bowe certainly does not deserve to be paid that high, and neither does Brady Quinn. But NFL Agents try to put the screws to the teams so they will look more attractive when recruiting next year's first round picks.

Most of the contracts were reported as 5 year deals. Even the 6 year deals have voidable years that make them 5 year deals. The length of the contract matters most to the teams, who like the extra year so they can create a lower salary cap charge. In fact, most of these players will either be cut in less than 5 years or re-negotiate their contracts if they become Superstars.

Slot	Player					Yrs	Max	Guar.
1	JaMarcus Russell
2	Calvin Johnson
3	Joe Thomas					6	$42.50	$23.00
4	Gaines Adams					6	$46.00	$18.60
5	Levi Brown
6	LaRon Landry					5	$41.50	$17.50
7	Adrian Peterson					5	$40.50	$17.00
8	Jamaal Anderson					5	$31.00	$15.40
9	Ted Ginn					5		$14.00
10	Amobi Okoye					6	$17.70	$12.80