2007 Rookie QB Stats

I've compiled the following statistics for the top five rookie quarterbacks of 2007. As the season goes on, I will update the stats as necessary.

Kevin Kolb				Att	Com	Pct	Yds	Yds/Att	TD	INT
2003	NCAA	Houston		360	220	61.1%	3131	8.70	25	6
2004	NCAA	Houston		353	198	56.1%	2766	7.84	11	6
2005	NCAA	Houston		420	254	60.5%	3258	7.76	19	15
2006	NCAA	Houston		432	292	67.6%	3809	8.82	30	4
2007	NFL Exhibition	Philadelphia		106	70	66.0%	617	5.82	2	0
Brady Quinn				Att	Com	Pct	Yds	Yds/Att	TD	INT
2003	NCAA	Notre Dame		332	157	47.3%	1831	5.52	9	15
2004	NCAA	Notre Dame		353	191	54.1%	2586	7.33	17	10
2005	NCAA	Notre Dame		450	292	64.9%	3919	8.71	32	7
2006	NCAA	Notre Dame		467	289	61.9%	3426	7.34	37	7
2007	NFL Exhibition	Cleveland		45	29	64.4%	300	6.67	3	1
John Beck				Att	Com	Pct	Yds	Yds/Att	TD	INT
2003	NCAA	BYU		145	73	50.3%	864	5.96	5	5
2004	NCAA	BYU		343	192	56.0%	2563	7.47	15	8
2005	NCAA	BYU		513	331	64.5%	3709	7.23	27	13
2006	NCAA	BYU		417	289	69.3%	3885	9.32	32	8
2007	NFL Exhibition	Miami		48	27	56.3%	300	6.25	2	2
JaMarcus Russell				Att	Com	Pct	Yds	Yds/Att	TD	INT
2004	NCAA	LSU		144	73	50.7%	1053	7.31	9	4
2005	NCAA	LSU		311	188	60.5%	2443	7.86	15	9
2006	NCAA	LSU		342	232	67.8%	3129	9.15	28	8
2007	NFL Exhibition	Oakland		-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Drew Stanton				Att	Com	Pct	Yds	Yds/Att	TD	INT
2003	NCAA	Michigan St		3	2	66.7%	39	13.00	0	0
2004	NCAA	Michigan St		220	141	64.1%	1601	7.28	8	6
2005	NCAA	Michigan St		354	236	66.7%	3077	8.69	22	12
2006	NCAA	Michigan St		269	164	61.0%	1807	6.72	12	10
2007	NFL Exhibition	Detroit		-	-	-	-	-	-	-

2007 NFL First Round Rookie Contract Details (UPDATED)

I have since updated this information. Click here to access all the rookie contract details from the 2006 and 2007 NFL Draft!

Almost all 2007 NFL draft picks have been signed (Oakland and JaMarcus Russell have yet to reach a deal). A few weeks ago I published the contract details of the first round picks in the '07 Draft. It has been my post popular post to date. With all but Russell signed, I've updated the contract details below.

I'd like to point out a few things to clarify the numbers below. Most of the 6 year contracts have easily voidable years that make them essentially 4-5 year deals. The Max Value includes incentives that are not likely to be earned. Brady Quinn's deal, with a max value of $30 million seems great, but it is extremely doubtful he will see more than $10 million on that contract.

"Max" and "Guaranteed" values are in millions of dollars.

	Player	Yrs	Max	Guar.
1	JaMarcus Russell
2	Calvin Johnson	6	$64.50	$27.20
3	Joe Thomas	6	$42.50	$23.00
4	Gaines Adams	6	$46.00	$18.60
5	Levi Brown	6	$62.00	$18.10
6	LaRon Landry	5	$41.50	$17.50
7	Adrian Peterson	5	$40.50	$17.00
8	Jamaal Anderson	5	$31.00	$15.40
9	Ted Ginn	5	$21.80	$14.00
10	Amobi Okoye	6	$17.70	$12.80
11	Patrick Willis	5	$16.70	$12.00
12	Marshawn Lynch	5	$18.94	$10.30
13	Adam Carriker	5	$14.50	$9.40
14	Darrelle Revis	6	$36.00	$11.00
15	Lawrence Timmons	5	$12.00	$8.05
16	Justin Harrell	6	$15.00	$8.00
17	Jarvis Moss	5	$15.00	$8.00
18	Leon Hall	5	$13.10	$8.20
19	Michael Griffin	5	$13.30	$7.50
20	Aaron Ross	5	$13.50	$8.00
21	Reggie Nelson	5	$13.10	$7.10
22	Brady Quinn	5	$30.00	$7.75
23	Dwayne Bowe	5	$11.80	$6.50
24	Brandon Merriweather	5	$11.50	$6.00
25	Jon Beason	5	$12.50	$6.30
26	Anthony Spencer	5	$9.00	$6.00
27	Robert Meachem	5	$11.30	$5.70
28	Joe Staley	5	$10.90	$5.60
29	Ben Grubbs	5	$10.60	$5.50
30	Craig Davis	5	$11.03	$5.40
31	Greg Olsen	5	$10.69	$4.90
32	Anthony Gonzalez	5	$10.30	$5.40

I have since updated this information. Click here to access all the rookie contract details from the 2006 and 2007 NFL Draft!

Kevin Kolb, John Beck Most Likely To Be Top NFL Quarterbacks

Every year around April we hear stories of how great this QB prospect is going to be. During draft season everyone gets caught up in the physical abilities of each prospect, but fail to look at the big picture.

Using more than just physical ability, I will handicap who I feel in the 2007 NFL Draft has the best shot at long-term QB success in the NFL.

Criteria

Research done by the Football Outsiders suggest that there are two college stats that many successful pro QBs share: Starts and Completion Percentage. QBs who have started at least 40 games and have a career completion percentage of at least 60% tend to have more success in the NFL. These two stats will be the first criteria used to judge this year's rookie passers.

I will also use physical ability to rank the players. However, just being drafted means that you have enough physical ability to play pro football. I will look at size, mobility, arm strength, and accuracy. I will use the opinions of several draft guides in my analysis.

The last criteria is the most subjective. I call it the "X-factors." It includes my opinion of a QB's intangibles, like leadership, work ethic, etc. It also includes a fair assessment of the environment the player is in. Was he drafted to a talented team with good coaching? Will he be forced to play right away? These are all just as important, if not more so, than raw physical talent.

While my rankings may seem surprising, they represent a complete assessment of what it takes to be a pro QB.

Rankings

1. Kevin Kolb, Philadelphia
Grade: A+
Kolb grades very well in all the criteria I used. He started 50 games at Houston and completed 61.6% of his passes. He has all the physical tools necessary to be a successful QB. He's also in the perfect situation in Philadelphia. He gets to learn from an offensive mastermind in an offense that suits his skills perfectly. Their is also no pressure to start right away, with Donovan McNabb expected to return to form this season.

2. John Beck, Miami
Grade: B
Beck was a very efficient passer (62.4% completion rate) in 38 starts for BYU. While many have questioned his arm strength, he obviously put those concerns to rest, as evidenced by his meteoric rise up draft boards and eventual selection by the Dolphins near the top of the 2nd round. Beck gets to learn under Cam Cameron and will be Trent Green's understudy for at least one season before he is expected to start. The Dolphins still have a great defense and are rebuilding the offense. When Beck is ready to play, the Dolphins could be ready for a playoff push.

3. JaMarcus Russell, Oakland
Grade: C-
Russell has the best physical tools of any QB in this draft, but he is going to a very bad offense in Oakland. History has shown that high first round picks thrown to the wolves on bad teams usually don't pan out. Russell's holdout could be a good thing, it would make the Raiders more inclined to keep him on the bench so he can learn.

4. Brady Quinn, Cleveland
Grade: C-
Quinn is also in a bad spot in Cleveland. Combined with the fact that he has average arm strength and accuracy, he will be hard-pressed to develop into a top NFL QB. His clueless holdout and smug attitude won't endear him to fans or his teammates.

5. Jordan Palmer, Washington
Grade: C-
The younger Palmer has just as good physical tools as his older brother, but he never seemed to put it all together in college, despite starting 42 games. Washington is not exactly an offensive paradise, but he can sit for three or four years and maybe become something special.

6. Drew Stanton, Detroit
Grade: C-
Stanton initially had a grade higher than JaMarcus Russell, but he has since been put on IR for a knee injury. Missing his whole rookie season will definitely set him back. And who knows how his mobility and mechanics will be affected by the knee injury. Otherwise, Stanton is actually in a great spot in Detroit. They have plenty of offensive talent, a genius offensive mind in Mike Martz, and an older veteran QB in Jon Kitna to learn from.

7. Troy Smith, Baltimore
Grade: D
Smith's biggest knock is his size. He has a good arm and showed leadership ability at Ohio State. He'll get a chance to learn behind Steve McNair in Baltimore and could develop into a very good backup.

8. Trent Edwards, Buffalo
Grade: D
Wasn't impressive at Stanford, even though he possesses fine physical abilities. Buffalo is not a team known for developing QBs.

The Rest: Jeff Rowe, Cincinnati; Tyler Thigpen, Minnesota; Isaiah Stanback, Dallas
Grade: F
None of these guys have any one part of their game that jumps out. Best chance for success for any of them at this point seems as a back up or in another league.

Contract Details of 2007 First Round Picks

I have since updated this information. Click here to access all the rookie contract details from the 2006 and 2007 NFL Draft!

I have cobbled together a table with contract details of the 2007 NFL 1st Round draft picks. The information was taken from various news reports and may not be 100% accurate. As of July 31, JaMarcus Russell, Calvin Johnson, Levi Brown, Darrelle Revis, Brady Quinn, Dwayne Bowe, and John Beason have yet to sign. I could not find the maximum value of Ted Ginn and Michael Griffin's contracts.

Dwayne Bowe is waiting for Brady Quinn to sign before he signs. If you notice, the MAX and Guaranteed amounts of each contract declines at a steady rate as you fall down the first round. Quinn and his agent feel he deserves to be paid like a high pick because that is what they gave up (assuming its business as usual in Cleveland)in next year's draft to get back into the first round this year and draft him. Bowe and his agent want to make sure he is paid in between Quinn and Brandon Merriweather, who was right behind Bowe. If Quinn signed for fair value of the #22 spot, than Bowe could expect a MAX value of $11.5M-13M with guarantees of $6M-7M. If Quinn can con the Browns into paying him the average of the #4 spot (right around where the Browns would have most likely picked next year) and the #22 pick he actually was, than Bowe's contract range increases to $11.5M-18M Max value with $6M-10M gauranteed.

Dwayne Bowe certainly does not deserve to be paid that high, and neither does Brady Quinn. But NFL Agents try to put the screws to the teams so they will look more attractive when recruiting next year's first round picks.

Most of the contracts were reported as 5 year deals. Even the 6 year deals have voidable years that make them 5 year deals. The length of the contract matters most to the teams, who like the extra year so they can create a lower salary cap charge. In fact, most of these players will either be cut in less than 5 years or re-negotiate their contracts if they become Superstars.

Slot	Player					Yrs	Max	Guar.
1	JaMarcus Russell
2	Calvin Johnson
3	Joe Thomas					6	$42.50	$23.00
4	Gaines Adams					6	$46.00	$18.60
5	Levi Brown
6	LaRon Landry					5	$41.50	$17.50
7	Adrian Peterson					5	$40.50	$17.00
8	Jamaal Anderson					5	$31.00	$15.40
9	Ted Ginn					5		$14.00
10	Amobi Okoye					6	$17.70	$12.80
11	Patrick Willis					5	$16.70	$12.00
12	Marshawn Lynch					5	$18.94	$10.30
13	Adam Carriker					5	$14.50	$9.40
14	Darrelle Revis
15	Lawrence Timmons					5	$12.00	$8.05
16	Justin Harrell					6	$15.00	$8.00
17	Jarvis Moss					5	$15.00	$8.00
18	Leon Hall					5	$13.10	$8.20
19	Michael Griffin					5		$7.50
20	Aaron Ross					5	$13.50	$8.00
21	Reggie Nelson					5	$13.10	$7.10
22	Brady Quinn
23	Dwayne Bowe
24	Brandon Merriweather					5	$11.50	$6.00
25	Jon Beason
26	Anthony Spencer					5	$9.00	$6.00
27	Robert Meachem					5	$11.30	$5.70
28	Joe Staley					5	$10.90	$5.60
29	Ben Grubbs					5	$10.60	$5.50
30	Craig Davis					5	$11.03	$5.40
31	Greg Olsen					5	$10.69	$4.90
32	Anthony Gonzalez					5	$10.30	$5.40