Since free agency began at midnight last Friday, the signings have come at a furious pace. Some teams, like Oakland, the New York Jets, and Miami, have been extremely active. Others, like New England, Indianapolis, and the New York Giants, have decided against being an active member in the free agency market.
This off season's Patriots?
Last off season, the New England Patriots were making the most of the free agency market, signing WR Donte' Stallworth, LB Adalius Thomas, and trading for WRs Wes Welker and Randy Moss.
This off season, the Cleveland Browns are trying to duplicate the Pats' strategy, hoping a Super Bowl appearance will reward their efforts. They gave out over $67 million in guaranteed money to five players. The Brown re-signed QB Derek Anderson and RB Jamal Lewis. They traded for DTs Corey Williams and Shaun Rogers. They also added receiving help in the form of WR Donte' Stallworth.
The trades for Williams (2nd round pick) and Rogers (3rd), along with last year's trade up to draft QB Brady Quinn, means the Browns will not have a pick in the top 100 of this year's draft. The addition of these two DTs addresses one of the Browns' biggest weaknesses last season. If either of the two make the Pro Bowl in '08, it will be well worth the draft picks.
Laying the foundation in Miami
The first major move in the Parcells era kicked off with the signing of 49ers guard Justin Smiley shortly after the free agency market opened. The Dolphins didn't slow down, signing DT Randy Starks and WR Ernest Wilford and trading for DT Jason Ferguson. Other signings, like QB Josh McCown and LB Charlie Anderson, were meant to add depth and rebuild a woeful special teams.
The Dolphins refused to overpay for any player, which led to former Arizona DE/LB Calvin Pace signing with the Jets. Parcells, Jeff Ireland, and new coach Tony Sporano know that this team needs more than what any one player brings to the table. The Dolphins will bring this strategy into the draft, looking to trade down and pick up draft picks where possible.
Stop the bleeding
The Pats re-signing of WRs Randy Moss and Jabar Gaffney was precluded by big losses in the secondary. CBs Asante Samuel and Randall Gay left for Philadelphia and New Orleans, respectively. DBs Eugene Wilson and Chad Scott are still unsigned. They did add CB Jason Webster from Buffalo, but expect the Pats to use the draft to build depth in the secondary and find an eventual replacement for Rodney Harrison.
Over-Pay as you go
The Oakland Raiders decided to be a player this off season. Their eagerness led them to overpay for questionable talent.
They started by re-signing their own DT Tom Kelly. Kelly only played in seven games last season, and his $50 million contract has more guaranteed money ($18M) than he has sacks in his career (13).
They handed Kwame Harris, the OT who was a bust for the 49ers, $16M over three years. Former Giants S Gibril Wilson received $16M in guaranteed money. No doubt the Raiders paid a "Super Bowl" premium (think Larry Brown and Dexter Jackson) for Wilson.
Then there is Javon Walker. The WR was cut by the division rival Denver Broncos, and eventually signed a massive contract with Oakland. Walker's deal is insane (6 years, $16M guaranteed, $55M total). Walker's contract includes the same amount of money in the first three years ($27M) as does Randy Moss. Moss signed a three year, $27M contract to remain with the Pats.
I'm not exactly sure what Oakland is doing. One thing is for certain, if these guys don't pan out, they will have a lot of "dead money" on the books in a few years.
Pass catchers in high demand
After New England rebuilt their receiving corps via free agency last season, more teams this season are following the trend. Walker got a big contract. Another winner was former Bears receiver Bernard Berrian. The Vikings gave him $16M guaranteed with $42M total over six years. Jerry Porter received $30M over six years from Jacksonville and Donte' Stallworth $35M over seven from Cleveland.
The big surprise is the lack of interest in Randy Moss and the relatively modest contract he ultimately signed with New England. Compared to the other contracts signed by inferior receivers, the decision to not franchise Moss led to New England re-signing their receiver at the infamous "Patriot discount."
Best free agent deals
1. QB Billy Volek re-signing with the Chargers (3 years, $9M).
Volek probably could have received more money elsewhere, and a chance to start. Instead he chose to stay in San Diego and back up Philip Rivers. The Chargers won out, as Volek is an extremely capable #2 who can keep the team winning if Rivers is injured.
2. RB Michael Turner signing with the Falcons (6 years, $34.5M).
I was surprised Turner didn't receive more money. The Falcons got a key offensive component at a good price. Turner and Jerious Norwood will make a great combo in Atlanta.
3. LB Lance Briggs re-signing with the Bears (6 years, $36M).
There was no market for Briggs, which is surprising. In the end, the Bears were the big winners. They were able to keep a key defensive player for the same amount of money they offered pre-free agency.
4. CB/KR Allen Rossum signing with the 49ers (1 year, $870K); DE Jimmy Wilkerson signing with the Bucs (2 years, $3M); DT Jimmy Kennedy signing with the Jaguars (1 year, $700K); OG Keydrick Vincent signing with the Panthers (2 years, $2M); S Yeremiah Bell re-signing with the Dolphins (1 year, $1.4M); RB DeShaun Foster signing with the 49ers (2 years, $1.8M).
These are the types of shrewd signings that build depth and improve special teams. It is almost guaranteed that at least one of these players will outplay their contract and be a big contributor for their respective teams.
Click here for a comprehensive list of NFL free agent signings and contract details.
A deeper look at the first week of NFL free agency
First pick in '08 NFL Draft to be costly
The Miami Dolphins may have a problem trading the #1 pick in this year's draft. Not only are there no clear-cut "franchise" players at the top of the draft, but the #1 pick is expected to command a contract in excess of $60 million, with over half of that guaranteed.
In the 2006 NFL Draft, #1 pick Mario Williams received a $54M contract, with $26.5M guaranteed. One year later, JaMarcus Russell held out until he signed a contract worth $61M with $32M guaranteed. Thats an increase of 13% in total value and 21% in guaranteed pay. (click here for full 2006 and 2007 First round contract details)
If that trend continues (as it probably will considering the wealth of cap room most teams will again have this year) the #1 pick will likely sign a contract worth $69M total with $39M guaranteed. If the first pick happens to be at a "premium" position, like RB or QB, it wouldn't be unthinkable for those numbers to rise to over $70M total with over $40M guaranteed.
That is a hefty price to pay for an unproved player. Unless the owners and player's union agrees to fix this in the next round of collective bargaining agreements, any team that doesn't go along with the rise in prices will likely have to deal with a long holdout, like Oakland had with Russell last year.
In the past, teams looking to trade up into the first spot had to pay a king's ransom. With these large contracts for high picks making more teams reluctant to trade up, I expect the trade value of the #1 pick to start to decline. In fact, I would not be surprised if the Dolphins trade away the pick for relative peanuts if they can get the guy they want all along at a cheaper contract.
Drafting a RB early not a good idea
The NFL Draft is around the corner, and the Miami Dolphins are on the clock. One of the decisions they will have to make is whether or not to draft Arkansas RB Darren McFadden with the top pick. Such a move, drafting a RB in the top 10, is a mistake in my opinion.
Running Backs in the NFL take more abuse than probably any other position. Every back in the league is one knee twist away from a career-ending injury. The injury factor alone makes drafting one high a risky proposition.
But is it even necessary to have an All-Star RB to win the Super Bowl? Sure enough, Walter Peyton and Emmitt Smith were key to the success of their Super Bowl championship teams. But Barry Sanders never won one, and Ladainian Tomlinson has yet to even play in one.
A strong run game is important to being a championship team. But you don't need a Peyton or Smith to have a strong run game. Many teams this year, including the Super Bowl champs, made do with lesser known backs, or RB by committee.
A perfect example of that was Green Bay's Ryan Grant. Grant came out of nowhere and was a key piece to the Packers' playoff push. Grant was not drafted out of college, and was acquired by the Pack from the Giants for peanuts. Other RBs that made an impact this season, like Brandon Jacobs, Brian Westbrook, Willie Parker, and Justin Fargas, weren't drafted in the first round. Parker wasn't even drafted.
This past season, of the 22 RBs to average at least 62.5 yards per game with at least 100 attempts, 13 of them where either drafted outside of the first round and/or acquired via free agency or trade. Of the nine RBs drafted in the first round by their current team, only Tomlinson, Adrian Peterson, and Ronnie Brown of Miami were top ten picks.
Due to the availability of quality runners outside of the first round, and the lingering injury concerns that hover over the careers of all RBs, it doesn't make since to spend a top pick on a back.
The abundance of RB talent in the 2008 Draft lends further credence to this idea. While McFadden is widely believed to be the best RB in the draft, this year's class is extremely deep and loaded with quality. Illinois' Rashard Mendenhall, Oregon's Jonathan Stewart, and Arkansas' Felix Jones could all be first rounders. Central Florida's Kevin Smith, East Carolina's Chris Johnson, Texas' Jamaal Charles, Rutgers' Ray Rice, West Virginia's Steve Slaton, and Michigan's Mike Hart could all be drafted on the first day.
Farewell Zach Thomas: Paying tribute to a Dolphins Legend
Jay Glazer of Foxsports.com is reporting that the Miami Dolphins will cut ties today with LB Zach Thomas.
As a lifelong Dolphins fan, I am sad to see him go. In my era of fandom (from about 1984 to present), Thomas is in my opinion the second biggest Dolphins legend. In fact, the first jersey I ever purchased (with money from a summer job), was Dan Marino's. The second: a blue #54 that still hangs in my closet.
Thomas embodies everything the Dolphins were in his time with the team: a tough, underrated competitor that gave it his all every play. Unfortunately, the Dolphins never could field a potent enough offense to take advantage of the great defenses we had led by Thomas and Jason Taylor.
Thomas has said that he isn't ready to retire. While I wouldn't mind seeing him go out a winner on another team, the fan in me hopes that team isn't the New England Patriots.
Whatever team Thomas signs with, if in fact he doesn't retire, I wish him the best. Thank you Zach Thomas for all you've done for my team.
Bengals, Raiders limit Dolphin's chances of trading #1 pick
In a recent post on God Loves The Gators, I came up with a few scenarios for the Miami Dolphins to trade the #1 pick in this year's draft. Two recent news items seem to rule out some of those scenarios.
On Wednesday, Cincinnati head coach Marvin Lewis reiterated that the Bengals will not be trading WR Chad Johnson. Whether or not the Bengals change their mind, the recent comments cause one to doubt the Johnson to Miami scenario will occur.
Adam Schefter of the NFL Network is reporting that the Raiders have re-signed RB Justin Fargas to a three year deal after the back had a career season. This would seem to rule out the Raiders as a candidate to trade up for Arkansas RB Darren McFadden.
It's far too early to tell what is going to happen with the #1 pick, as the draft is still more than two months away. Stay tuned to God Loves The Gators, as I will have plenty of draft coverage leading up to April.
On a side note, I will be participating in a live mock draft on MyMockDraft.com. I will have more to say on that when the time comes. If you get a chance, check out MyMockDraft.com. Its a pretty cool site.
The Dolphins could trade the #1 pick, and here's how
The Miami Dolphins hold the #1 pick in this year's NFL Draft. The Dolphins could take a player at #1, but they need more than one quality player. Trading down would definitely help this team rebuild.
While there does not appear to be a clear cut #1 player in this year's draft, it only takes one team to fall in love with a player like LSU DT Glenn Dorsey, Arkansas RB Darren McFadden, or BC QB Matt Ryan, for the Dolphins to swing a deal.
Trade scenario #1:
Dallas offers R1 P22, R1 P28, and RB Marion Barber
One possibility floating around is that Dallas owner Jerry Jones will try to swing a deal for McFadden. The Cowboys have the 22nd and 28th picks in the first round of this year's draft. According the the NFL Draft value chart, those two picks are worth about 1500 points. The #1 pick is worth 3000. The Cowboys could sweeten the deal by throwing in RB Marion Barber. Barber is a restricted free agent, and teamed with current RB Ronnie Brown, would produce one of the most dynamic rushing duos in the NFL.
Trade scenario #2:
Oakland offers R1 P3*, R2 P37*, and 2009 2nd Round pick
If Dallas shows serious interest in trading up, that might spur Oakland to make an offer for McFadden. While the Raiders had a break-out season from Justin Fargas, it wouldn't surprise me if Al Davis goes for the sensational trade.
Trade scenario #3:
Baltimore offers R1 P8, R2 P38, and 2009 1st Round pick
The Ravens and new coach John Harbaugh may decide to start off their regime by drafting a "franchise" QB. Boston College's Matt Ryan appears to be the frontrunner for the franchise QB label in this draft.
Trade scenario #4:
Cincinnati offers R1 P9, R2 P46, R3 P77, and WR Chad Johnson
Chad Johnson has made it known that he wants to be traded. The Bengals just may comply if they feel a guy like Glenn Dorsey or Virginia DE Chris Long would provide an immediate lift to the team's defense. Coach Marvin Lewis is on the hot seat, and trading Johnson for the #1 pick may just rid him of a headache and provide a boost to the D. The Dolphins could use a #1 WR after trading Chris Chambers to San Diego during the season.
Trade scenario #5:
Cleveland offers R2 P56, R3 P87, and QB Derek Anderson
The Browns are open to trading restricted free agent QB Derek Anderson. Two questions that need to be answered for this trade to happen: Do the Dolphins really want Derek Anderson and do the Browns want to shell out the money required to sign the #1 pick?
Trade scenario #6:
Atlanta offers R1 P4*, R2 P35*, and R3 P66*
The Falcons could be in the market for a franchise LT. Michigan's Jake Long fits the bill.
Forbes releases NFL franchise values
Want to buy your favorite NFL team? Depending on who you follow, that could set you back up to 1.5 BILLION dollars. The Vikings, Falcons, and, surprisingly, the 49ers can be had for less than $800 million.
Stadium situation played a huge role in Forbes' calculations. It also seems that perennial winning teams are worth more the habitual losers. The graph below shows each team's value. The Forbes article can be found here.
(click on image for a larger view)
Inside The Dolphin's Offense
In 2004, I became so frustrated with my team, the Miami Dolphins. Mainly then-coach Dave Wannstedt and QB Jay Fiedler. In an attempt to vent my frustration, I created another website "Inside The Dolphin's Offense." Unfortunately, I did not have the time to keep up with it, and the initial front page (below, minus the pretty formatting) is about as far as I got.
INSIDE THE DOLPHIN'S OFFENSE
"Thank God I'm Not The Starting QB!"
My name is Mike Register. Keep visiting this website to get all the latest "Inside" info on the pungent...errrr, potent, Miami Dolphins Offense.
LATEST RUMOR!!! Word has it that GM Rick Spielman has offered LB Eddie Moore, San Diego DB Jamar Fletcher, and WR David Boston to the
Kansas City Chiefs in exchange for HB Larry Johnson. Spielman believes the trade would be great for both teams, as Miami would recieve the tough inside runner they
need and Boston, Fletcher and Moore would solve the Chiefs defensive woes and give the offense the big play receiving threat they are lacking. Upon hearing the news, KC Coach
Dick Vermiel simutaneously laughed and cried. (9/28/04)
ROSTER UPDATE Coach Dave Wannstedt believes so strongly that Kicker Olindo Mare will redeem himself for last year's missed field
goals against New England that he has already named Mare the starting QB for the October 10th game at Gillette Stadium. Upon hearing the news, NE Coach Bill Belichick
simutaneously laughed and cried. (9/28/04)
LATEST RUMOR!!! The Dolphins are expected to sign LL Cool J this week. Coach Wannstedt was impressed with his running ability in the
movie "Any Given Sunday." LL Cool J also played a football player on his own lame sitcom, so he should fit in with the Dolphins Offense. GM Spielman is currently attempting
to contact the Miami Sharks to work out a trade for the "Cool J." (9/28/04)
SMARTEST RB EVER UPDATE If the Dolphins can't solve the running game problems by the highly anticipated showdown November 14
with BYE, Wannstedt and Spielman will inact what is known within the organization as "Blunt Plan B" to lure RB Ricky Williams back to the team. From what we have been able to
find out, the plan involves tying a bong to a long, long piece of string, dangle in front of Williams, and slowly lure him back to the Dolphins facilities. Originally Jay Fiedler
was going to be the one pulling the string, but much to Wannstedt's chagrin, Spielman has opted to go with unproven string-puller AJ Feeley. (9/28/04)
BEST QB EVER UPDATE Former Dolphins QB Dan Marino has been awoken late the last three Sunday nights by the phone ringing. When
answered, all that can be heard on the other end is uncontrollable sobing and mumbles of "I'm sorry, I'm sorry, please come back." No word yet on who the caller could be. (9/28/04)
DOLPHINS TEAM FUN UPDATE The Dolphins Defensive players have affectionately come up with nicknames for the Offensive Lineman. They
include Wade "Dwight Freeney's Bag Boy" Smith, John "Revolving Door"St Clair, Damien "My ankle is broken but I'm still better then Mark Dixon" Mc Intosh, Seth "Stop touching
my ass" McKinney, Vernon "Can I get another year of College Eligibilty" Carey, and Taylor "Goddamnit block someone mother fucker!!!" Whitley. (9/28/04)
FORMER PLAYER UPDATE Former Dolphins Offensive Linemen Mark Dixon, Tim Ruddy, Todd Wade, Jamie Nails, Todd Perry, Brent Smith, Kevin Donalley,
Keith Simms, and Richmond Webb have all been awoken the last three Sunday nights by the phone ringing. When
answered, all that can be heard on the other end is uncontrollable sobing and mumbles of "I'm sorry, I'm sorry, please come back." No word yet on who the caller could be. (9/28/04)
STAT OF THE WEEK Through two and a half games, AJ Feeley has passed for a total of 523 yards. Dan Marino once passed for 521 yards in ONE GAME. Still wonder
if Wayne Huizenga considers Feeley the next Dan Marino?
Kevin Kolb, John Beck Most Likely To Be Top NFL Quarterbacks
Every year around April we hear stories of how great this QB prospect is going to be. During draft season everyone gets caught up in the physical abilities of each prospect, but fail to look at the big picture.
Using more than just physical ability, I will handicap who I feel in the 2007 NFL Draft has the best shot at long-term QB success in the NFL.
Criteria
Research done by the Football Outsiders suggest that there are two college stats that many successful pro QBs share: Starts and Completion Percentage. QBs who have started at least 40 games and have a career completion percentage of at least 60% tend to have more success in the NFL. These two stats will be the first criteria used to judge this year's rookie passers.
I will also use physical ability to rank the players. However, just being drafted means that you have enough physical ability to play pro football. I will look at size, mobility, arm strength, and accuracy. I will use the opinions of several draft guides in my analysis.
The last criteria is the most subjective. I call it the "X-factors." It includes my opinion of a QB's intangibles, like leadership, work ethic, etc. It also includes a fair assessment of the environment the player is in. Was he drafted to a talented team with good coaching? Will he be forced to play right away? These are all just as important, if not more so, than raw physical talent.
While my rankings may seem surprising, they represent a complete assessment of what it takes to be a pro QB.
Rankings
1. Kevin Kolb, Philadelphia
Grade: A+
Kolb grades very well in all the criteria I used. He started 50 games at Houston and completed 61.6% of his passes. He has all the physical tools necessary to be a successful QB. He's also in the perfect situation in Philadelphia. He gets to learn from an offensive mastermind in an offense that suits his skills perfectly. Their is also no pressure to start right away, with Donovan McNabb expected to return to form this season.
2. John Beck, Miami
Grade: B
Beck was a very efficient passer (62.4% completion rate) in 38 starts for BYU. While many have questioned his arm strength, he obviously put those concerns to rest, as evidenced by his meteoric rise up draft boards and eventual selection by the Dolphins near the top of the 2nd round. Beck gets to learn under Cam Cameron and will be Trent Green's understudy for at least one season before he is expected to start. The Dolphins still have a great defense and are rebuilding the offense. When Beck is ready to play, the Dolphins could be ready for a playoff push.
3. JaMarcus Russell, Oakland
Grade: C-
Russell has the best physical tools of any QB in this draft, but he is going to a very bad offense in Oakland. History has shown that high first round picks thrown to the wolves on bad teams usually don't pan out. Russell's holdout could be a good thing, it would make the Raiders more inclined to keep him on the bench so he can learn.
4. Brady Quinn, Cleveland
Grade: C-
Quinn is also in a bad spot in Cleveland. Combined with the fact that he has average arm strength and accuracy, he will be hard-pressed to develop into a top NFL QB. His clueless holdout and smug attitude won't endear him to fans or his teammates.
5. Jordan Palmer, Washington
Grade: C-
The younger Palmer has just as good physical tools as his older brother, but he never seemed to put it all together in college, despite starting 42 games. Washington is not exactly an offensive paradise, but he can sit for three or four years and maybe become something special.
6. Drew Stanton, Detroit
Grade: C-
Stanton initially had a grade higher than JaMarcus Russell, but he has since been put on IR for a knee injury. Missing his whole rookie season will definitely set him back. And who knows how his mobility and mechanics will be affected by the knee injury. Otherwise, Stanton is actually in a great spot in Detroit. They have plenty of offensive talent, a genius offensive mind in Mike Martz, and an older veteran QB in Jon Kitna to learn from.
7. Troy Smith, Baltimore
Grade: D
Smith's biggest knock is his size. He has a good arm and showed leadership ability at Ohio State. He'll get a chance to learn behind Steve McNair in Baltimore and could develop into a very good backup.
8. Trent Edwards, Buffalo
Grade: D
Wasn't impressive at Stanford, even though he possesses fine physical abilities. Buffalo is not a team known for developing QBs.
The Rest: Jeff Rowe, Cincinnati; Tyler Thigpen, Minnesota; Isaiah Stanback, Dallas
Grade: F
None of these guys have any one part of their game that jumps out. Best chance for success for any of them at this point seems as a back up or in another league.
It has begun!
Welcome to the first post of the "God Loves The Gators" blog. My name is Mike Register, and I will be your host, storyteller, entertainer, and all around best friend while you are here reading my blog.
I would like to go over a few things that may improve your reading experience on this blog:
1. The name "God Loves The Gators" came from a bet I made with a good friend. To find out more, just click here: Florida/Ohio St bet.
2. I am a huge Florida Gator and Miami Dolphin fan. But don't worry about me being biased, as I am extremely intelligent, kind, and basically, I know my football. I promise to you I will not let my loyalties distract me from presenting "Fair and Balanced" commentary on all things football.
3. I have been called a smart ass before. I take it as a compliment. If something offends you on this blog, its probably best to just assume that I am being a smart ass and/or you have no sense of humor.
4. Any and all proceeds from this blog go to support my college education. So, read my blogs, post comments, click on advertiser's links, and have fun!
