I've just completed my first mock draft of the year at MyMockDraft.com. Check it out, leave a comment, and sign up to do your own draft: Three Round Mock Draft.
It was interesting trying to pick three whole rounds. While I follow college and pro football religiously, I haven't yet done extensive research on this year's draft class.
With the first overall pick, I had Miami drafting DE Chris Long. I think he is the safest pick if Miami stays there.
Showing posts with label NFL Draft. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NFL Draft. Show all posts
God Loves The Gators' Three Round Mock Draft
Sunday, March 2, 2008 at 2:21 AM Posted by Mike Register
First pick in '08 NFL Draft to be costly
Monday, February 25, 2008 at 6:33 PM Posted by Mike Register
The Miami Dolphins may have a problem trading the #1 pick in this year's draft. Not only are there no clear-cut "franchise" players at the top of the draft, but the #1 pick is expected to command a contract in excess of $60 million, with over half of that guaranteed.
In the 2006 NFL Draft, #1 pick Mario Williams received a $54M contract, with $26.5M guaranteed. One year later, JaMarcus Russell held out until he signed a contract worth $61M with $32M guaranteed. Thats an increase of 13% in total value and 21% in guaranteed pay. (click here for full 2006 and 2007 First round contract details)
If that trend continues (as it probably will considering the wealth of cap room most teams will again have this year) the #1 pick will likely sign a contract worth $69M total with $39M guaranteed. If the first pick happens to be at a "premium" position, like RB or QB, it wouldn't be unthinkable for those numbers to rise to over $70M total with over $40M guaranteed.
That is a hefty price to pay for an unproved player. Unless the owners and player's union agrees to fix this in the next round of collective bargaining agreements, any team that doesn't go along with the rise in prices will likely have to deal with a long holdout, like Oakland had with Russell last year.
In the past, teams looking to trade up into the first spot had to pay a king's ransom. With these large contracts for high picks making more teams reluctant to trade up, I expect the trade value of the #1 pick to start to decline. In fact, I would not be surprised if the Dolphins trade away the pick for relative peanuts if they can get the guy they want all along at a cheaper contract.
2006 and 2007 NFL First Round Contract Details
Sunday, February 24, 2008 at 7:56 PM Posted by Mike Register
I've pieced together the contract details of the first round picks in the 2006 and 2007 NFL Drafts.
Click Here to download the rookie contract details in Excel '07
Click Here to download in Word
The Max column represents the Maximum value of the contract if incentives are reached. The Guar. column is the amount of Guaranteed money in the contract. All values are in millions of dollars.
| 2006 First Round Contract Details | ||||
| Slot | Player | Yrs | Max | Guar. |
| 1 | Mario Williams | 6 | $54.00 | $26.50 |
| 2 | Reggie Bush | 6 | $52.50 | $26.30 |
| 3 | Vince Young | 6 | $58.00 | $25.75 |
| 4 | D'Brickashaw Ferguson | 6 | $37.50 | $17.90 |
| 5 | AJ Hawk | 6 | $37.50 | $16.00 |
| 6 | Vernon Davis | 5 | $23.00 | $15.20 |
| 7 | Michael Huff | 6 | $43.00 | $15.00 |
| 8 | Donte Whitner | 5 | $29.00 | $13.50 |
| 9 | Ernie Sims | 5 | $15.74 | $12.10 |
| 10 | Matt Leinart | 6 | $50.80 | $14.00 |
| 11 | Jay Cutler | 6 | $47.86 | $11.00 |
| 12 | Haloti Ngata | 5 | $11.90 | $9.28 |
| 13 | Kamerion Wimbley | 6 | $23.70 | $9.25 |
| 14 | Brodrick Bunkley | 6 | $17.50 | $7.46 |
| 15 | Tye Hill | 5 | $10.20 | $7.70 |
| 16 | Jason Allen | 6 | $24.00 | $7.80 |
| 17 | Chad Greenway | 5 | $10.75 | $6.15 |
| 18 | Bobby Carpenter | 5 | $12.00 | $7.50 |
| 19 | Antonio Cromartie | 5 | $12.50 | $7.35 |
| 20 | Tamba Hali | 5 | ? | ? |
| 21 | Laurence Maroney | 5 | $8.74 | $6.13 |
| 22 | Manny Lawson | 5 | $13.90 | $4.90 |
| 23 | Davin Joseph | 5 | $10.00 | $4.14 |
| 24 | Johnathan Joseph | 5 | $8.20 | $5.60 |
| 25 | Santonio Holmes | 5 | $8.11 | $5.42 |
| 26 | John McCargo | 5 | $8.60 | $5.20 |
| 27 | Deangelo Williams | 5 | $14.50 | $5.00 |
| 28 | Marcedes Lewis | 5 | $7.50 | $4.80 |
| 29 | Nick Mangold | 5 | $7.40 | $4.80 |
| 30 | Joseph Addai | 5 | $11.65 | $4.76 |
| 31 | Kelly Jennings | 5 | $9.70 | $5.00 |
| 32 | Mathias Kiwanuka | 5 | $10.00 | $5.00 |
| AVERAGE | 5.3 | $22.25 | $10.21 | |
| 2007 First Round Contract Details | ||||||
| Slot | Player | Yrs | Max | Change | Guar. | Change |
| 1 | JaMarcus Russell | 6 | $61.00 | 13% | $32.00 | 21% |
| 2 | Calvin Johnson | 6 | $64.50 | 23% | $27.20 | 3% |
| 3 | Joe Thomas | 6 | $42.50 | -27% | $23.00 | -11% |
| 4 | Gaines Adams | 6 | $46.00 | 23% | $18.60 | 4% |
| 5 | Levi Brown | 6 | $62.00 | 65% | $18.10 | 13% |
| 6 | LaRon Landry | 5 | $41.50 | 80% | $17.50 | 15% |
| 7 | Adrian Peterson | 5 | $40.50 | -6% | $17.00 | 13% |
| 8 | Jamaal Anderson | 5 | $31.00 | 7% | $15.40 | 14% |
| 9 | Ted Ginn | 5 | $21.80 | 39% | $14.00 | 16% |
| 10 | Amobi Okoye | 6 | $17.70 | -65% | $12.80 | -9% |
| 11 | Patrick Willis | 5 | $16.70 | -65% | $12.00 | 9% |
| 12 | Marshawn Lynch | 5 | $18.94 | 59% | $10.30 | 11% |
| 13 | Adam Carriker | 5 | $14.50 | -39% | $9.40 | 2% |
| 14 | Darrelle Revis | 6 | $36.00 | 106% | $11.00 | 47% |
| 15 | Lawrence Timmons | 5 | $12.00 | 18% | $8.05 | 5% |
| 16 | Justin Harrell | 6 | $15.00 | -38% | $8.00 | 3% |
| 17 | Jarvis Moss | 5 | $15.00 | 40% | $8.00 | 30% |
| 18 | Leon Hall | 5 | $13.10 | 9% | $8.20 | 9% |
| 19 | Michael Griffin | 5 | $13.30 | 6% | $7.50 | 2% |
| 20 | Aaron Ross | 5 | $13.50 | ? | $8.00 | ? |
| 21 | Reggie Nelson | 5 | $13.10 | 50% | $7.10 | 16% |
| 22 | Brady Quinn | 5 | $30.00 | 116% | $7.75 | 58% |
| 23 | Dwayne Bowe | 5 | $11.80 | 18% | $6.50 | 57% |
| 24 | Brandon Merriweather | 5 | $11.50 | 40% | $6.00 | 7% |
| 25 | Jon Beason | 5 | $12.50 | 54% | $6.30 | 16% |
| 26 | Anthony Spencer | 5 | $9.00 | 5% | $6.00 | 15% |
| 27 | Robert Meachem | 5 | $11.30 | -22% | $5.70 | 14% |
| 28 | Joe Staley | 5 | $10.90 | 45% | $5.60 | 17% |
| 29 | Ben Grubbs | 5 | $10.60 | 43% | $5.50 | 15% |
| 30 | Craig Davis | 5 | $11.03 | -5% | $5.40 | 13% |
| 31 | Greg Olsen | 5 | $10.69 | 10% | $4.90 | -2% |
| 32 | Anthony Gonzalez | 5 | $10.30 | 3% | $5.40 | 8% |
| AVERAGE | 5 | $23.41 | 5% | $11.19 | 10% | |
Bengals, Raiders limit Dolphin's chances of trading #1 pick
Wednesday, February 13, 2008 at 10:07 PM Posted by Mike Register
In a recent post on God Loves The Gators, I came up with a few scenarios for the Miami Dolphins to trade the #1 pick in this year's draft. Two recent news items seem to rule out some of those scenarios.
On Wednesday, Cincinnati head coach Marvin Lewis reiterated that the Bengals will not be trading WR Chad Johnson. Whether or not the Bengals change their mind, the recent comments cause one to doubt the Johnson to Miami scenario will occur.
Adam Schefter of the NFL Network is reporting that the Raiders have re-signed RB Justin Fargas to a three year deal after the back had a career season. This would seem to rule out the Raiders as a candidate to trade up for Arkansas RB Darren McFadden.
It's far too early to tell what is going to happen with the #1 pick, as the draft is still more than two months away. Stay tuned to God Loves The Gators, as I will have plenty of draft coverage leading up to April.
On a side note, I will be participating in a live mock draft on MyMockDraft.com. I will have more to say on that when the time comes. If you get a chance, check out MyMockDraft.com. Its a pretty cool site.
Kevin Kolb, John Beck Most Likely To Be Top NFL Quarterbacks
Sunday, August 5, 2007 at 12:42 PM Posted by Mike Register
Every year around April we hear stories of how great this QB prospect is going to be. During draft season everyone gets caught up in the physical abilities of each prospect, but fail to look at the big picture.
Using more than just physical ability, I will handicap who I feel in the 2007 NFL Draft has the best shot at long-term QB success in the NFL.
Criteria
Research done by the Football Outsiders suggest that there are two college stats that many successful pro QBs share: Starts and Completion Percentage. QBs who have started at least 40 games and have a career completion percentage of at least 60% tend to have more success in the NFL. These two stats will be the first criteria used to judge this year's rookie passers.
I will also use physical ability to rank the players. However, just being drafted means that you have enough physical ability to play pro football. I will look at size, mobility, arm strength, and accuracy. I will use the opinions of several draft guides in my analysis.
The last criteria is the most subjective. I call it the "X-factors." It includes my opinion of a QB's intangibles, like leadership, work ethic, etc. It also includes a fair assessment of the environment the player is in. Was he drafted to a talented team with good coaching? Will he be forced to play right away? These are all just as important, if not more so, than raw physical talent.
While my rankings may seem surprising, they represent a complete assessment of what it takes to be a pro QB.
Rankings
1. Kevin Kolb, Philadelphia
Grade: A+
Kolb grades very well in all the criteria I used. He started 50 games at Houston and completed 61.6% of his passes. He has all the physical tools necessary to be a successful QB. He's also in the perfect situation in Philadelphia. He gets to learn from an offensive mastermind in an offense that suits his skills perfectly. Their is also no pressure to start right away, with Donovan McNabb expected to return to form this season.
2. John Beck, Miami
Grade: B
Beck was a very efficient passer (62.4% completion rate) in 38 starts for BYU. While many have questioned his arm strength, he obviously put those concerns to rest, as evidenced by his meteoric rise up draft boards and eventual selection by the Dolphins near the top of the 2nd round. Beck gets to learn under Cam Cameron and will be Trent Green's understudy for at least one season before he is expected to start. The Dolphins still have a great defense and are rebuilding the offense. When Beck is ready to play, the Dolphins could be ready for a playoff push.
3. JaMarcus Russell, Oakland
Grade: C-
Russell has the best physical tools of any QB in this draft, but he is going to a very bad offense in Oakland. History has shown that high first round picks thrown to the wolves on bad teams usually don't pan out. Russell's holdout could be a good thing, it would make the Raiders more inclined to keep him on the bench so he can learn.
4. Brady Quinn, Cleveland
Grade: C-
Quinn is also in a bad spot in Cleveland. Combined with the fact that he has average arm strength and accuracy, he will be hard-pressed to develop into a top NFL QB. His clueless holdout and smug attitude won't endear him to fans or his teammates.
5. Jordan Palmer, Washington
Grade: C-
The younger Palmer has just as good physical tools as his older brother, but he never seemed to put it all together in college, despite starting 42 games. Washington is not exactly an offensive paradise, but he can sit for three or four years and maybe become something special.
6. Drew Stanton, Detroit
Grade: C-
Stanton initially had a grade higher than JaMarcus Russell, but he has since been put on IR for a knee injury. Missing his whole rookie season will definitely set him back. And who knows how his mobility and mechanics will be affected by the knee injury. Otherwise, Stanton is actually in a great spot in Detroit. They have plenty of offensive talent, a genius offensive mind in Mike Martz, and an older veteran QB in Jon Kitna to learn from.
7. Troy Smith, Baltimore
Grade: D
Smith's biggest knock is his size. He has a good arm and showed leadership ability at Ohio State. He'll get a chance to learn behind Steve McNair in Baltimore and could develop into a very good backup.
8. Trent Edwards, Buffalo
Grade: D
Wasn't impressive at Stanford, even though he possesses fine physical abilities. Buffalo is not a team known for developing QBs.
The Rest: Jeff Rowe, Cincinnati; Tyler Thigpen, Minnesota; Isaiah Stanback, Dallas
Grade: F
None of these guys have any one part of their game that jumps out. Best chance for success for any of them at this point seems as a back up or in another league.
Top Football Links
Wednesday, August 1, 2007 at 4:54 PM Posted by Mike Register
My friends often ask me, "Mike, how is it that you are so smart and good-looking, yet so humble?" By "friends" I mean "no one" and by "often" I mean "ever."
But if I were to be asked that question, I would tell that highly-observant person my secrets. As far as being so good-looking, I have to thank my mom and dad. Its just the way they made me. My humility comes from the fact that if I am not humble I would alienate everyone and never have any friends.
How did I get to be so smart? I do my homework. It usually consists of doing ten Google searches, giving up in frustration, and then checking out one of the following websites.
Fark Sports This is one of the first sites I go to when I jump online. The site is a collection of sports news links with a message board and often-witty headlines. Several times I've found obscure news articles (like Matt Lienart's Baby-Momma problems) that the big sports sites (ESPN,etc) don't report on.
Pro Football Talk This rumor mill site rocks. This guy has loads of insider contacts and seems to be right more times than most of ESPN's "experts." His frequent cracks on ESPN's Len Pasquarelli are priceless. The guy that runs the site is a lawyer who is not afraid to say it like it is.
Football Outsiders Baseball is a game of numbers. This site takes baseball's stat-driven analysis and applies it to football. It makes for some really interesting articles and plenty of food for thought.
GBN Report The GBN Report is a miscellaneous draft info site. This site has been around for over 5 years and as such, has lots of good info from the 2001-2007 drafts that you won't find easily anywhere else (like traded picks, full prospect lists, and even CFL draft info)
Stat Fox This site is a great resource for the gambling sports fan. They have valuable info on just about any sport you can bet on. Some of the really good stuff is only available to subscribers, however.
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