Kevin Kolb, John Beck Most Likely To Be Top NFL Quarterbacks

Every year around April we hear stories of how great this QB prospect is going to be. During draft season everyone gets caught up in the physical abilities of each prospect, but fail to look at the big picture.

Using more than just physical ability, I will handicap who I feel in the 2007 NFL Draft has the best shot at long-term QB success in the NFL.

Criteria

Research done by the Football Outsiders suggest that there are two college stats that many successful pro QBs share: Starts and Completion Percentage. QBs who have started at least 40 games and have a career completion percentage of at least 60% tend to have more success in the NFL. These two stats will be the first criteria used to judge this year's rookie passers.

I will also use physical ability to rank the players. However, just being drafted means that you have enough physical ability to play pro football. I will look at size, mobility, arm strength, and accuracy. I will use the opinions of several draft guides in my analysis.

The last criteria is the most subjective. I call it the "X-factors." It includes my opinion of a QB's intangibles, like leadership, work ethic, etc. It also includes a fair assessment of the environment the player is in. Was he drafted to a talented team with good coaching? Will he be forced to play right away? These are all just as important, if not more so, than raw physical talent.

While my rankings may seem surprising, they represent a complete assessment of what it takes to be a pro QB.

Rankings

1. Kevin Kolb, Philadelphia
Grade: A+
Kolb grades very well in all the criteria I used. He started 50 games at Houston and completed 61.6% of his passes. He has all the physical tools necessary to be a successful QB. He's also in the perfect situation in Philadelphia. He gets to learn from an offensive mastermind in an offense that suits his skills perfectly. Their is also no pressure to start right away, with Donovan McNabb expected to return to form this season.

2. John Beck, Miami
Grade: B
Beck was a very efficient passer (62.4% completion rate) in 38 starts for BYU. While many have questioned his arm strength, he obviously put those concerns to rest, as evidenced by his meteoric rise up draft boards and eventual selection by the Dolphins near the top of the 2nd round. Beck gets to learn under Cam Cameron and will be Trent Green's understudy for at least one season before he is expected to start. The Dolphins still have a great defense and are rebuilding the offense. When Beck is ready to play, the Dolphins could be ready for a playoff push.

3. JaMarcus Russell, Oakland
Grade: C-
Russell has the best physical tools of any QB in this draft, but he is going to a very bad offense in Oakland. History has shown that high first round picks thrown to the wolves on bad teams usually don't pan out. Russell's holdout could be a good thing, it would make the Raiders more inclined to keep him on the bench so he can learn.

4. Brady Quinn, Cleveland
Grade: C-
Quinn is also in a bad spot in Cleveland. Combined with the fact that he has average arm strength and accuracy, he will be hard-pressed to develop into a top NFL QB. His clueless holdout and smug attitude won't endear him to fans or his teammates.

5. Jordan Palmer, Washington
Grade: C-
The younger Palmer has just as good physical tools as his older brother, but he never seemed to put it all together in college, despite starting 42 games. Washington is not exactly an offensive paradise, but he can sit for three or four years and maybe become something special.

6. Drew Stanton, Detroit
Grade: C-
Stanton initially had a grade higher than JaMarcus Russell, but he has since been put on IR for a knee injury. Missing his whole rookie season will definitely set him back. And who knows how his mobility and mechanics will be affected by the knee injury. Otherwise, Stanton is actually in a great spot in Detroit. They have plenty of offensive talent, a genius offensive mind in Mike Martz, and an older veteran QB in Jon Kitna to learn from.

7. Troy Smith, Baltimore
Grade: D
Smith's biggest knock is his size. He has a good arm and showed leadership ability at Ohio State. He'll get a chance to learn behind Steve McNair in Baltimore and could develop into a very good backup.

8. Trent Edwards, Buffalo
Grade: D
Wasn't impressive at Stanford, even though he possesses fine physical abilities. Buffalo is not a team known for developing QBs.

The Rest: Jeff Rowe, Cincinnati; Tyler Thigpen, Minnesota; Isaiah Stanback, Dallas
Grade: F
None of these guys have any one part of their game that jumps out. Best chance for success for any of them at this point seems as a back up or in another league.

Advanced Computer Simulation Predicts 2007 NFL Season

I've had my graphing calculator, a fine TI-83 made by Texas Instruments, for 10 years now. It has gotten me through many college math classes with a good grade. Now it will predict the 2007 NFL season, complete with records and more!

How you ask? Don't ask. Cause if I told you how I managed to get a TI-83 to predict the future, you'd proceed to tell me how I have too much free time, no life, and/or both. Just know that all won/loss records are COMPLETELY random, and I asked a few yes/no questions to elaborate on the results.

AFC EAST:
1. Miami (10-6): The Fins start out 3-5, then go 7-1 after beating the NY Giants "at home" in London.
2. New England (10-6): The Pats finish strong after starting the season 4-5.
3. NY Jets (10-6): The Jets were in control at midseason with a 6-2 record, but couldn't hold off Miami and New England. Miami won the tiebreaker with a 5-1 division record.
4. Buffalo (6-10)

AFC SOUTH:
1. Indianapolis (12-4): The Colts cruise in a mediocre AFC South.
2. Houston (8-8): TI-83 thinks the Falcons were dumb for trading QB Matt Schaub.
3. Jacksonville (8-8)
4. Tennessee (6-10)

AFC NORTH:
1. Cleveland (11-5): The first really "crazy" prediction has to be the Browns winning 11 games. TI-83 likes Brady Quinn, and thinks he will start right away for Cleveland.
2. Pittsburgh (7-9)
3. Baltimore (6-10) Dark clouds ahead for the Ravens and Bengals! TI-83 predicts major injuries will do both teams in!
4. Cincinnati (5-11)

AFC WEST:
1. Denver (9-7): TI-83 thinks the AFC West will have a seriously down year.
2. Oakland (9-7): Not that strange compared to the Browns pick.
3. Kansas City (9-7)
4. San Diego (6-10): TI-83 thinks Norv Turner will be a huge flop as head coach. But six wins does seem too harsh.

NFC EAST:
1. Philadelphia (10-6): McNabb leads the Eagles back on top.
2. NY Giants (8-8)
3. Washington (8-8)
4. Dallas (3-13): TI-83 thinks Dallas should have taken Brady Quinn and that Romo and new coach Wade Phillips will bomb.

NFC SOUTH:
1. Tampa Bay (13-3): Jeff Garcia has a career year in Tampa. Which is more likely to happen: Tampa winning 13, Cleveland winning 11, San Diego winning 6, or Dallas winning 3?
2. Carolina (8-8)
3. New Orleans (6-10): Brees and Peyton come back down to earth.
4. Atlanta (6-10): Even a random simulator knows better than to pick the Dirty Birds to win more than six.

NFC NORTH:
1. Detroit (10-6): TI-83 agrees with Jon Kitna and Peter King: The Lions' offense under Mike Martz will be sick!
2. Green Bay (8-8)
3. Chicago (6-10): TI-83 not sold on Rex Grossman at QB and Cedric Benson at RB
4. Minnesota (6-10)

NFC WEST:
1. San Francisco (9-7): Interesting how the TI-83 predicts the parity of the NFC West to continue.
2. Seattle (9-7)
3. Arizona (7-9)
4. St Louis (7-9)

PLAYOFFS
First Round:
(AFC)
#3 Miami over #6 NY Jets
#5 New England over #4 Denver
(NFC)
#6 NY Giants over #3 Detroit
#4 San Francisco over #5 Seattle
Second Round:
(AFC)
#5 New England over #1 Indianapolis
#2 Cleveland over #3 Miami
(NFC)
#6 NY Giants over #1 Tampa Bay
#2 Philadelphia over #4 San Francisco

AFC Championship:
Cleveland over New England
NFC Championship:
Philadelphia over NY Giants

SUPER BOWL:
Philadelphia over Cleveland

Seem far fetched and way off base (and any other cliche you can think of)? Maybe, maybe not. Every NFL season is full of surprises, and the "experts" are almost always wrong. All they do with their predictions is project what happened the year before onto the following season.

I will revisit these predictions as the season goes along to see how they pan out. Remember, these predictions are not mine, they were derived randomly from my TI-83 calculator.