2007 NFL week 5 picks

After two consecutive winning weeks, I took a big step backwards last week. It was a strange work all around.

Let's see if I can do better this week.

(h) Tennessee (-8) over Atlanta
Atlanta's defense is allowing 128.5 yards. rushing a game, and Tennessee's offense averages over 170. Look for the Titans to control the clock and the game.

Jacksonville (-2) over Kansas City (h)
The Chiefs are coming off of a big win over the Chargers. Could this be the turning point for KC? Not against the Jaguars defense.

(h) St. Louis (+3.5) over Arizona
The Rams hope benching Marc Bulges will lift the team out of its losing streak. I'm going with the Rams because I think the Cardinals will have a letdown from last weeks big win over Pittsburgh.

(h) New England over Cleveland (+16)
How good are the Patriots this year? On paper this game seems like a blowout. But the Browns have figured something out under QB Derek Andersen. They will do something no one has been able to do so far: Keep the score within two touchdowns.

(h) New Orleans (-3) over Carolina
David Carr should perform better against a weak Saints defense, but I am not ready to throw in the towel on New Orleans.

(h)N.Y. Giants over N.Y. Jets (+3.5)

(h) Pittsburgh over Seattle (+5.5)
I don't see Pittsburgh losing two in a row, but I do see Seattle having a chance to win in the end.

Detroit (+3.5) over Washington (h)
Call this my upset special of the week. I think Detroit's passing offense is better than Washington's defense.

(h) Houston over Miami (+5.5)
The Phins have looked bad, and the Texans should be able to run against them.

(h) Indianapolis (-10) over Tampa Bay
Road game and no "Cadillac." The Bucs are a better team this year, but Indy continues to roll.

San Diego (+1.5) over Denver (h)
Denver is not a good team, but thus far this season neither is San Diego.

Baltimore (-3) over San Francisco (h)
This could be a blowout. The Niners are hurting.

Chicago (+3.5) over Green Bay (h)
I expect a bounce-back game for the Bears. They can't afford to drop too far behind in the suddenly-competitive NFC North.

Dallas (-10) over Buffalo (h)
Should be a blowout, but stranger things have happened.

2007 NFL Week 4 picks

Chicago (-3) over Detroit (h)
The benching of Rex Grossman in favor of Brian Griese will be a big lift to the Bears offense.

Houston (-3) over Atlanta (h)
Texans QB Matt Schaub makes his former team regret trading him away.

NY Jets (-3.5) over Buffalo (h)
It's time to hit the panic button in Buffalo, where rookie QB Trent Edwards replaces an injured JP Losman.

(h) Baltimore over Cleveland (+4)

(h) Dallas over St Louis (+13)

(h) Miami over Oakland (+4)
I know I'm a homer, but this is the most winnable game the Dolphins have had so far. They will win, but it will be close.

Green Bay (-2) over Minnesota (h)
Packers QB Brett Favre has historically played awful in Minnesota, but this year's team, and Favre himself, seem to be diiferent.

Seattle (-2) over San Francisco (h)

(h) Carolina (even) over Tampa Bay

(h) Indianapolis over Denver (+9.5)

Pittsburgh (-6) over Arizona (h)

(h) San Diego (-11.5) over Kansas City
I could get burned again by picking the Chargers, but KC's offense is bad, and defensively they are not much better. LT and the Chargers should roll.

Philadelphia (-3) over NY Giants (h)

New England over Cincinnati (+7.5) (h)
I think the Bengals, a big underdog on Monday Night Football, will be competitive. This means they cover the spread but lose.

Recap: Week 2 NFL picks

See all my picks thus far this season here.

Check my main page for the current week's picks (usually posted by Friday).

Week two of the NFL is in the books. I did better overall this week (10-6 outright, 7-8-1 against the spread) than I did in week one (9-7 outright, 5-10-1 ATS).

The New Orleans Saints and Philadelphia Eagles' 0-2 starts have hurt my accuracy. Now that the season is starting to shake out, I think I will continue to improve. My 10-6 record straight up isn't bad, but I am definitely looking to improve on my 37.5% record against the spread. If I was a gambling man, I'd have to pick at least 52% ATS to break even.

I did pretty good last week picking underdogs (6-3).

I should have this week's picks up by Friday. I'll try to go into a little more detail on my picks. Its been a really busy past few weeks in the business college.