NFL Week 7 Picks

Baltimore (-3) over Buffalo (h)

(h) Detroit (-2) over Tampa Bay

New England over Miami (+16.5) (h)

Atlanta (+8) over New Orleans (h)

(h) New York Giants over San Francisco (+9)

(h) Washington over Arizona (+8)

(h) Houston (1.5) over Tennessee

(h) Cincinnati (-6) over New York Jets

(h) Oakland (-2.5) over Kansas City

Dallas over Minnesota (+9.5) (h)

(h) Philadelphia over Chicago (+5.5)

(h) Seattle (-8.5) over St Louis

Pittsburgh (-3.5) over Denver (h)

(h) Jacksonville (+3) over Indianapolis

NFL Week 6 Picks

(h) Chicago over Minnesota (+6)

(h)Green Bay (-3) over Washington

(h) Dallas (+5.5) over New England
Dallas squeaked one out last week against the Bills. I'm sure Tony Romo's five interceptions were a fluke, but if that happens again, this game won't be close. I think they were looking ahead, but will be prepared this week against the Patriots. Of course, I've been picking against the Pats all season, so what do I know?


(h) Cleveland over Miami (+4.5)
I know, I'm picking against my team, even though I will have a bet going with my Browns friend. But this pick is made with my head, not my heart.

(h) Kansas City (+3) over Cincinnati
The Chiefs should be able to run on the Bengals weak defense. If they can establish the run early, then taking the home underdog is a sure bet.

Philadelphia (-3) over NY Jets (h)
I'd like to pick the Jets in this one, but they can't hold on to a lead in a game.

Tennessee (+3) over Tampa Bay (h)

Houston (+6.5) over Jacksonville (h)
The Jags will be caught off guard by an improved Texans team.

(h) Baltimore over St Louis (+9.5)

(h) Arizona (-0) over Carolina
I don't have much faith in David Carr in Carolina.

(h) San Diego over Oakland (+10)

(h) Seattle (-6.5) over New Orleans

NY Giants over Atlanta (h) (+3)

2007 NFL Week 3 picks

As promised, here are my picks for week three in the National Football League.

San Diego (-5) over Green Bay
The Chargers have struggled to get the ground game going in the first two weeks. Green Bay has a good defense, but this game is a reprieve for the Chargers' offense after having to go up against the Bears and Patriots. The Chargers' defense will stymie Brett Favre and earn a much-needed victory over the Packers.

Kansas City (-2.5) over Minnesota
This could be the week that Larry Johnson gets back to last season's form. The Chiefs can't afford to not give the ball to Johnson 25 or more times this week. If the Chiefs can get any performance out of the passing game, it will help Johnson even more. The Vikings have been playing good defense so far, but I'm not sold on QB Tarvaris Jackson. It should be a close game, but the Chiefs should be victorious at home.

New England over Buffalo (+16.5)
The Patriots will win this game, but I can't pass on the Bills with 16.5 points. The Bills aren't that bad, and there is a chance that the Pats could be taking them lightly. Throw in all the distractions from "CameraGate" and there is a very real possibility for an upset. I settle for the Bills keeping it within two touchdowns.

Miami (+3) over NY Jets
Both offenses are struggling. The Dolphins defense has played well, but has been betrayed by their offense. I think the Dolphins will have a breakout defensive performance against the porous Jets o-line, and I don't expect Trent Green to repeat his five turnover performance of last week.

Philadelphia over Detroit (+6)
This should be an exciting Arena-style football game. Detroit doesn't run the ball much, and Philly can't get their run game going. Donovan McNabb is not 100%, but he should be more accurate than he was last week. This game really could go either way, but the Eagles will earn their first win of the season.

Pittsburgh (-9) over San Francisco
The 49ers are an improved team, but they are not as good as their 2-0 start would indicate. The Steelers seem to be better than what was expected of them. They dominated their first two opponents, and while I don't think they will dominate San Francisco, I don't see this game being too close.

St Louis (+4) over Tampa Bay
The Rams should finally put one in the win column this week. The Bucs are just too inconsistent, and if the Rams offense is clicking, they have enough to overcome an aging Bucs defense.

Baltimore over Arizona (+7.5)
The Ravens defense is just too much for QB Matt Leinart to handle. The Cardinals run game has improved, but not to the point it can overcome LB Ray Lewis and DT Haloti Ngata.

Indianapolis (-6) over Houston
If the Texans had WR Andre Johnson in the line-up, I would be tempted to pick them to win, if not at least cover the spread. I am high on the Texans this year, but I think the Colts are too good for them right now.

Jacksonville (+3) over Denver
The Broncos have been playing their games very close this season, and this week it will catch up to them. The Jags defense will stifle young Broncos QB Jake Cutler. The Jaguars have their own troubles on offense, but will be good enough to score the win.

Oakland (-3) over Cleveland
Will the real Cleveland Browns please stand up. The Raiders defense is a lot better than the Bengals defense, and I don't see Derek Anderson throwing another five touchdown passes. Lamont Jordan has had a good start for the Raiders at RB, and is the key to an Oakland victory.

Cincinnati (+3.5) over Seattle
Another game featuring two teams coming off of bad weeks. If it comes down to a shootout, I expect the Bengals to come out on top.

Carolina (-3.5) over Atlanta
The Falcons are bad. The Panthers defense will be all over Joey Harrington in a rout.

Washington over NY Giants (+3.5)
These two teams are a lot closer than their opposite records would indicate. The Redskins run game will again lead them to victory, but the Giants will keep it close.

Dallas (+3) over Chicago
If the Cowboys want to be the top dog in the NFC, they will have to beat the Bears. They have enough firepower on offense to score against the Bears defense, and a good enough defense to take advantage of Rex Grossman's mistakes. As long as the Bears don't kick to Devin Hester, they should win a low scoring game.

New Orleans over Tennessee (+4)
This could be the game that the Saints offense gets back on track. Vince Young will keep the Titans in the game versus a bad Saints defense. The Titans, however, won't be able to stop Drew Brees and the New Orleans offense.

2007 Opening Week NFL Picks (Part 2)

Titans at Jaguars

Tennessee lost a lot of talent during the offseason, which is not good considering it was a one man show last year with QB Vince Young. Jacksonville has a defense that can contain Young, and QB David Gerrard is eager to prove he deserves the starting job.

My Pick
To Win: Jacksonville
ATS: Jacksonville -7


Chiefs at Texans

Herm Edwards has vowed to ease RB Larry Johnson into the season. How long will that plan last if Damon Huard can't throw the ball or backup RB Michael Bennett can't chip in enough yards? Houston should be much improved under QB Matt Schaub.

My Pick
To Win: Houston
ATS: Houston +3


Lions at Raiders

The Raiders should be much improved this season. They had a very good defense last season, and offensively they can't be any worse than they were last year. Detroit should have a great passing attack this season. At this point, I have to go with Oakland and their D until the Lions show me something on the field.

My Pick
To Win: Oakland
ATS: Oakland -2.5


Bears at Chargers

This game won't even be close. The Bears are vastly overrated, and who knows which QB, "Good Rex" or "Bad Rex" Grossman, will show up. The Chargers will make a big statement in the first game of the season by pounding the Bears.

My Pick
To Win: San Diego
ATS: San Diego -6



Bucs at Seahawks

The Bucs offense will be much better this season under Jeff Garcia. The Seattle stars, QB Matt Hasselbeck, RB Shaun Alexander, and WR Deion Branch are aging, and it will show this season. Seattle may pull out the victory, but it will be a close game.

My Pick
To Win: Seattle
ATS: Tampa Bay +6



Giants at Cowboys

It's hard for me to see the Giants doing anything this season. Eli Manning has struggled and Tom Coughlin has lost the respect of his team. The Cowboys are eager to prove they are a contender in the NFC and should win this game.

My Pick
To Win: Dallas
ATS: Dallas -6

See all my picks thus far this season here.

Check my main page for the current week's picks (usually posted by Friday).

2007 Opening Week NFL Picks (Part 1)

OK, so I was wrong on the Saints keeping it close with the Colts. Lets see if I can do better this weekend. Here's the first part of my picks for opening week in the NFL.

Broncos at Bills

I expect the Bills to be much improved this season. Marv Levy has done a good job bringing in young, team-oriented players. Both of these teams are led by young, inexperienced QBs. Denver’s Jay Cutler had a pretty good end to his rookie season last year, and many expect him to take a big step forward. Ultimately, I give the edge to Denver because of their run-game on offense and improvements in talent made on defense.

My Pick
To Win: Denver
ATS: Denver -3

Steelers at Browns

How ugly are things going to get in Cleveland this season? They have many holes on their roster and a coach and GM who are planted squarely on the hot seat. Pittsburgh, on the other hand, is riding high with new coach Mike Tomlin. They looked good in the preseason and are hoping to ride that momentum into the regular season. I look for the Steelers’ defense to dominate in Cleveland, and Ben Roethlisberger and company doing just enough to cruise to a comfortable victory.

My Pick
To Win: Pittsburgh
ATS: Pittsburgh -4.5

Eagles at Packers

This should be a good game. I expect the Eagles and McNabb to return to form this year. I am also one of the few people not residing in Wisconsin to have high expectations for the Packers. They have slowly been rebuilding this team and should be in playoff contention this season. This game will be closer than many expect, but the Eagles will win their 6^th in a row against the Packers.

My Pick
To Win: Philadelphia
ATS: Philadelphia -3

Panthers at Rams

The Carolina Panthers have been classic underachievers since reaching the Super Bowl a few seasons ago. They still have a great defense, and will win this game if they can control the line of scrimmage. I like the Rams and what Scott Linehan has done, but the Panthers have been able to slow their offense down. The Panthers will slow Steven Jackson down, and QB Jake Delhomme, with David Carr looking over his shoulder, will do enough to win the game.

My Pick
To Win: Carolina
ATS: Panthers +1

Falcons at Vikings

This could be a really ugly game. Neither team boast a great defense, and the starting QBs are Joey Harrington (Atlanta) and Tarvaris Jackson (Minnesota). Whoever can establish the ground game early and make the fewest mistakes will win in a low scoring game.

My Pick
To Win: Atlanta
ATS: Atlanta +3

Patriots at Jets

What a great game to start the season. The Patriots are the better team, but the loss of S Rodney Harrison and, more importantly, DE Richard Seymour will definitely hurt. I think the Jets will find a way to exploit those losses and be in contention late in the game.

My Pick
To Win: New England
ATS: NYJ +6.5

Dolphins at Redskins

On paper this game looks really close. I think Miami’s defense and veteran QB Trent Green gives them the edge. Both teams will be relying on their RBs (Ronnie Brown and Jessie Chapman for Miami, Clinton Portis and Ladell Betts for Washington) to provide the offensive firepower.. With Cam Cameron for Miami and Al Saunders for Washington calling plays, it will come down to which team implements the most creative gameplan.

My Pick
To Win: Miami
ATS: Miami +3

See all my picks thus far this season here.

Check my main page for the current week's picks (usually posted by Friday).

2007 NFL season kicks off with the Saints and Colts

The pro football season kicks off tonight with the Saints visiting the Colts. This is looking like it will be an offensive show, as neither team has a great defense.

Some of the best "skill players" in the league will be on display tonight. Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, Reggie Bush, and Deuce McAllister are the big names. Youngsters like Anthony Gonzalez, Marques Colston, Joseph Addai, and Robert Meachem are also expected to have an impact.

Overall, I think the Colts are the better team, but not by much. DE Dwight Freeney could give the Colts the edge in this game.

My Pick

To win: Indianapolis Colts
ATS (Against the spread): New Orleans Saints +6


This season's picks

Check back with me later in the week and I will have all my picks for the opening week of the NFL season. This season I will attempt to pick every NFL game, straight up and against the spread. You can see all my picks as well as my accuracy here: 2007 NFL Season Picks.